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J.K. Dobbins
DEN @ ARI · Sun 4:05 PM ETRushing Yards · 47.5 at PrizePicks ·
45Signal · over 47.560% · 6 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
6 / 10Cleared the number in 6 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- carries: 13.5 a game recently
- vs ARI · ×1.04 yds per carry
Expected rushing yards: 46.9 yds against 47.5 · over 45%, under 55%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 47.5 · Oct 19, 2025 – Oct 15, 2026
Worst miss -11| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-19 | NYG | 81 over | +33.5 |
| 2025-10-26 | DAL | 111 over | +63.5 |
| 2025-11-02 | HOU | 61 over | +13.5 |
| 2025-11-06 | LV | 77 over | +29.5 |
| 2026-09-14 | KC | 36 under | −11.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | JAX | 36 under | −11.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | LA | 49 over | +1.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | SF | 40 under | −7.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | LAC | 68 over | +20.5 |
| 2026-10-15 | SEA | 41 under | −6.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 6 / 10 | 60% over | +13 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 60% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
Try every Pro feature free for 7 days, no card
Book Range
11 books · 5 yds spreadEasiest number for the over: 44.5
- ESPN Bet 44.5 -130 (easiest number)
- DraftKings 46.5 -114
- Hard Rock Bet 46.5 -115
- DK Pick6 46.5
- FanDuel 47.5 -113
- Fliff 47.5 -120
- Bally Bet 47.5 -124
- betPARX 47.5 -124
- BetRivers 47.5 -124
- PrizePicks 47.5
- BetMGM 49.5 +100
Line movement
- ESPN BetMoved from 54.5 to 44.5
- DraftKingsMoved from 58.5 to 46.5
- Hard Rock BetMoved from 58.5 to 46.5
- DK Pick6Moved from 49.5 to 46.5
- Bally BetMoved from 53.5 to 47.5
- betPARXMoved from 53.5 to 47.5
- BetRiversMoved from 53.5 to 47.5
- FanDuelMoved from 58.5 to 47.5
- FliffMoved from 58.5 to 47.5
- PrizePicksMoved from 56.5 to 47.5
- BetMGMMoved from 51.5 to 49.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 47.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 | vs SEA | 41 | under |
| 2026-10-11 | @ LAC | 68 | over |
| 2026-10-04 | @ SF | 40 | under |
| 2026-09-27 | vs LA | 49 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | vs JAX | 36 | under |
| 2026-09-14 | @ KC | 36 | under |
| 2025-11-06 | vs LV | 77 | over |
| 2025-11-02 | @ HOU | 61 | over |
| 2025-10-26 | vs DAL | 111 | over |
| 2025-10-19 | vs NYG | 81 | over |
| 2025-10-12 | @ NYJ | 40 | under |
| 2025-10-05 | @ PHI | 79 | over |
| 2025-09-29 | vs CIN | 101 | over |
| 2025-09-21 | @ LAC | 83 | over |
| 2025-09-14 | @ IND | 76 | over |
| 2025-09-07 | vs TEN | 63 | over |