Jacoby Brissett

ARI vs DEN · Sun 4:05 PM ET

Passing TDs · 1.5 · median of 8 books ·

46Signal · over 1.560% · 6 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance

6 / 10

How the formula reads this game

pass attempts: 39.0 a game recently

Expected passing tds: 1.5 against 1.5 · over 46%, under 54%

Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.

Last 10 games against 1.5 · Dec 14, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026

Worst miss -1.5

Each game against 1.5
Date	Opponent	Result	Margin
2025-12-14	HOU	3 over	+1.5
2025-12-21	ATL	1 under	−0.5
2025-12-28	CIN	2 over	+0.5
2026-01-04	LA	2 over	+0.5
2026-09-13	LAC	1 under	−0.5
2026-09-20	SEA	1 under	−0.5
2026-09-27	SF	2 over	+0.5
2026-10-04	NYG	2 over	+0.5
2026-10-11	DET	3 over	+1.5
2026-10-18	LA	0 under	−1.5

Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made

Splits

Window	Hits	Rate	Avg margin for the over
Last 5 (with DPB Pro)	Pro
Last 10	6 / 10	60% over	+0.2
Last 20 (with DPB Pro)	Pro
This season (2026) (with DPB Pro)	Pro
Home (with DPB Pro)	Pro

See whether the 60% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range

1.58 books, no line disagreementESPN · DK · BB · PX2 · BR · HR · FD · FL· best price at 1.5: ESPN +135

Line movement

No book has moved its number since first posting it.

Game log

Date	Opponent	Result	vs 1.5
2026-10-18	@ LA	0	under
2026-10-11	vs DET	3	over
2026-10-04	@ NYG	2	over
2026-09-27	@ SF	2	over
2026-09-20	vs SEA	1	under
2026-09-13	@ LAC	1	under
2026-01-04	@ LA	2	over
2025-12-28	@ CIN	2	over
2025-12-21	vs ATL	1	under
2025-12-14	@ HOU	3	over
2025-12-07	vs LA	2	over
2025-11-30	@ TB	2	over
2025-11-23	vs JAX	1	under
2025-11-16	vs SF	2	over
2025-11-09	@ SEA	2	over
2025-11-03	@ DAL	2	over
2025-10-19	vs GB	2	over
2025-10-12	@ IND	2	over
2025-10-05	vs TEN	0	under
2025-09-14	vs CAR	0	under