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Jahan Dotson
ATL @ TB · Sun 1:00 PM ETReceptions · 2.5 at FanDuel · median 1.5 ·
59Signal · under 2.570% · 7 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
3 / 10Cleared the number in 3 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 3.6 a game recently
Expected receptions: 1.7 against 2.5 · over 41%, under 59%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 7 games, 7 this season.
Last 10 games against 2.5 · Dec 20, 2025 – Oct 25, 2026
Worst miss -0.5 on the under| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-20 | WAS | 3 over | +0.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | BUF | 0 under | −2.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | WAS | 3 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | PIT | 1 under | −1.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | CAR | 2 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-09-24 | GB | 1 under | −1.5 |
| 2026-10-05 | NO | 2 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | BAL | 2 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | CHI | 3 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-10-25 | SF | 1 under | −1.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 7 / 10 | 70% under | +0.7 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 70% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
7 books · 1 spreadEasiest number for the under: 2.5
- Hard Rock Bet 1.5
- DraftKings 1.5
- BetMGM 1.5
- Bally Bet 1.5
- betPARX 1.5
- BetRivers 1.5
- FanDuel 2.5 (easiest number)
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | vs SF | 1 | under |
| 2026-10-18 | vs CHI | 3 | over |
| 2026-10-11 | vs BAL | 2 | under |
| 2026-10-05 | @ NO | 2 | under |
| 2026-09-24 | @ GB | 1 | under |
| 2026-09-20 | vs CAR | 2 | under |
| 2026-09-13 | @ PIT | 1 | under |
| 2026-01-04 | vs WAS | 3 | over |
| 2025-12-28 | @ BUF | 0 | under |
| 2025-12-20 | @ WAS | 3 | over |
| 2025-12-08 | @ LAC | 1 | under |
| 2025-11-28 | vs CHI | 1 | under |
| 2025-11-23 | @ DAL | 0 | under |
| 2025-11-16 | vs DET | 2 | under |
| 2025-11-10 | @ GB | 0 | under |
| 2025-10-26 | vs NYG | 1 | under |
| 2025-10-09 | @ NYG | 1 | under |
| 2025-10-05 | vs DEN | 1 | under |
| 2025-09-21 | vs LA | 1 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | @ KC | 1 | under |
| 2025-09-04 | vs DAL | 3 | over |