Jalen Brooks

ARI vs DEN · Sun 4:05 PM ET

Receiving Yards · 14.5 at ESPN Bet · median 17.5 ·

47Signal · over 14.580% · 4 / 5 · last 10 · the formula's chance

4 / 5

How the formula reads this game

targets: 3.7 a game recently → 4.0 this game
WR3 on the depth chart (usually WR4+) · ×1.08 targets
vs DEN · ×0.96 yds per target
Heavier load · ×1.02 yds per target

Expected receiving yards: 16.1 yds against 14.5 · over 47%, under 53%

Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 3 games, 3 this season.

Last 10 games against 14.5 · Dec 7, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026

Worst miss -14

Each game against 14.5
Date	Opponent	Result	Margin
—	—	no result	—
—	—	no result	—
—	—	no result	—
—	—	no result	—
—	—	no result	—
2025-12-07	LA	32 over	+17.5
2025-12-14	HOU	19 over	+4.5
2026-09-27	SF	0 under	−14.5
2026-10-11	DET	16 over	+1.5
2026-10-18	LA	30 over	+15.5

The ten-game rate rests on an average clearance under one unit of the stat: a thin habit rather than a wide one.

Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made

Splits

Window	Hits	Rate	Avg margin for the over
Last 5 (with DPB Pro)	Pro
Last 10	4 / 5	80% over	+5
Last 20 (with DPB Pro)	Pro
This season (2026) (with DPB Pro)	Pro
Home (with DPB Pro)	Pro

See whether the 80% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range

9 books · 3 yds spreadEasiest number for the over: 14.5

Line movement

DraftKingsMoved from 17.5 to 16.5

Game log

Date	Opponent	Result	vs 14.5
2026-10-18	@ LA	30	over
2026-10-11	vs DET	16	over
2026-09-27	@ SF	0	under
2025-12-14	@ HOU	19	over
2025-12-07	vs LA	32	over