Jalen Brooks

ARI vs DEN · Sun 4:05 PM ET

Receiving Yards · 17.5 at Fliff ·

44Signal · over 17.560% · 3 / 5 · last 10 · the formula's chance

3 / 5

How the formula reads this game

targets: 3.7 a game recently → 4.0 this game
WR3 on the depth chart (usually WR4+) · ×1.08 targets
vs DEN · ×0.96 yds per target
Heavier load · ×1.02 yds per target

Expected receiving yards: 16.1 yds against 17.5 · over 44%, under 56%

Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 3 games, 3 this season.

Last 10 games against 17.5 · Dec 7, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026

Worst miss -17

Each game against 17.5
Date	Opponent	Result	Margin
—	—	no result	—
—	—	no result	—
—	—	no result	—
—	—	no result	—
—	—	no result	—
2025-12-07	LA	32 over	+14.5
2025-12-14	HOU	19 over	+1.5
2026-09-27	SF	0 under	−17.5
2026-10-11	DET	16 under	−1.5
2026-10-18	LA	30 over	+12.5

Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made

Splits

Window	Hits	Rate	Avg margin for the over
Last 5 (with DPB Pro)	Pro
Last 10	3 / 5	60% over	+2
Last 20 (with DPB Pro)	Pro
This season (2026) (with DPB Pro)	Pro
Home (with DPB Pro)	Pro

See whether the 60% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
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Book Range

9 books · 3 yds spreadEasiest number for the over: 14.5

Line movement

DraftKingsMoved from 17.5 to 16.5

Game log

Date	Opponent	Result	vs 17.5
2026-10-18	@ LA	30	over
2026-10-11	vs DET	16	under
2026-09-27	@ SF	0	under
2025-12-14	@ HOU	19	over
2025-12-07	vs LA	32	over