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Jared Goff
DET vs GB · Sun 4:25 PM ETPassing TDs · 1.5 · median of 11 books ·
52Signal · over 1.560% · 6 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
6 / 10Cleared the number in 6 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- pass attempts: 38.2 a game recently
Expected passing tds: 2.4 against 1.5 · over 52%, under 48%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 5 games, 5 this season.
Last 10 games against 1.5 · Dec 4, 2025 – Oct 11, 2026
Worst miss -0.5| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-04 | DAL | 1 under | −0.5 |
| 2025-12-14 | LA | 3 over | +1.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | PIT | 3 over | +1.5 |
| 2025-12-25 | MIN | 1 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | CHI | 1 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | NO | 2 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-09-17 | BUF | 4 over | +2.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | NYJ | 2 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | CAR | 1 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | ARI | 3 over | +1.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 6 / 10 | 60% over | +0.6 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 60% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
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Book Range
11 books · 1 spreadEasiest number for the over: 1.5 · best price BB, PX2, BR -220
- Bally Bet 1.5 -220 (easiest number) (best price at this number)
- betPARX 1.5 -220 (easiest number) (best price at this number)
- BetRivers 1.5 -220 (easiest number) (best price at this number)
- DraftKings 1.5 -226 (easiest number)
- FanDuel 1.5 -230 (easiest number)
- BetMGM 1.5 -235 (easiest number)
- ESPN Bet 1.5 -240 (easiest number)
- PrizePicks 2
- Fliff 2.5 +155
- Hard Rock Bet 2.5 +155
- Fanatics 2.5 +145
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 1.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-11 | @ ARI | 3 | over |
| 2026-10-04 | @ CAR | 1 | under |
| 2026-09-27 | vs NYJ | 2 | over |
| 2026-09-17 | @ BUF | 4 | over |
| 2026-09-13 | vs NO | 2 | over |
| 2026-01-04 | @ CHI | 1 | under |
| 2025-12-25 | @ MIN | 1 | under |
| 2025-12-21 | vs PIT | 3 | over |
| 2025-12-14 | @ LA | 3 | over |
| 2025-12-04 | vs DAL | 1 | under |
| 2025-11-27 | vs GB | 2 | over |
| 2025-11-23 | vs NYG | 2 | over |
| 2025-11-16 | @ PHI | 1 | under |
| 2025-11-09 | @ WAS | 3 | over |
| 2025-11-02 | vs MIN | 2 | over |
| 2025-10-20 | vs TB | 1 | under |
| 2025-10-12 | @ KC | 2 | over |
| 2025-10-05 | @ CIN | 3 | over |
| 2025-09-28 | vs CLE | 2 | over |
| 2025-09-22 | @ BAL | 1 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | vs CHI | 5 | over |
| 2025-09-07 | @ GB | 1 | under |