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Josh Jacobs
GB @ NE · Sun 4:25 PM ETReceptions · 3.5 at Fliff ·
44Signal · under 3.560% · 6 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
4 / 10Cleared the number in 4 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 3.6 a game recently
Expected receptions: 3.0 against 3.5 · over 44%, under 56%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 8 games, 2 this season.
Last 10 games against 3.5 · Nov 2, 2025 – Oct 29, 2026
Worst miss -2.5 on the under| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-02 | CAR | 4 over | +0.5 |
| 2025-11-10 | PHI | 5 over | +1.5 |
| 2025-11-16 | NYG | 0 under | −3.5 |
| 2025-11-27 | DET | 1 under | −2.5 |
| 2025-12-07 | CHI | 2 under | −1.5 |
| 2025-12-14 | DEN | 2 under | −1.5 |
| 2025-12-20 | CHI | 2 under | −1.5 |
| 2025-12-27 | BAL | 1 under | −2.5 |
| 2026-10-25 | DET | 5 over | +1.5 |
| 2026-10-29 | CAR | 6 over | +2.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 6 / 10 | 60% under | +0.7 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 60% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
3.57 books, no line disagreementPX2 · BB · DK · HR · FD · FL · PP
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 3.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-29 | vs CAR | 6 | over |
| 2026-10-25 | @ DET | 5 | over |
| 2025-12-27 | vs BAL | 1 | under |
| 2025-12-20 | @ CHI | 2 | under |
| 2025-12-14 | @ DEN | 2 | under |
| 2025-12-07 | vs CHI | 2 | under |
| 2025-11-27 | @ DET | 1 | under |
| 2025-11-16 | @ NYG | 0 | under |
| 2025-11-10 | vs PHI | 5 | over |
| 2025-11-02 | vs CAR | 4 | over |
| 2025-10-26 | @ PIT | 3 | under |
| 2025-10-19 | @ ARI | 1 | under |
| 2025-10-12 | vs CIN | 5 | over |
| 2025-09-28 | @ DAL | 4 | over |
| 2025-09-21 | @ CLE | 5 | over |
| 2025-09-11 | vs WAS | 0 | under |
| 2025-09-07 | vs DET | 1 | under |