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Justice Hill
BAL vs CIN · Sun 1:00 PM ETReceiving Yards · 10.5 at DraftKings · median 9.5 ·
56Signal · over 10.550% · 5 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
5 / 10Cleared the number in 5 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 2.2 a game recently
- vs CIN · ×1.05 yds per target
Expected receiving yards: 10.1 yds against 10.5 · over 44%, under 56%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 10.5 · Oct 12, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -10| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-12 | LA | 28 over | +17.5 |
| 2025-10-26 | CHI | 0 under | −10.5 |
| 2025-10-30 | MIA | 13 over | +2.5 |
| 2025-11-09 | MIN | 12 over | +1.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | IND | 10 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | NO | 12 over | +1.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | DAL | 0 under | −10.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | TEN | 22 over | +11.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | ATL | 5 under | −5.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | CLE | 9 under | −1.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 5 / 10 | 50% | +1 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 50% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
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Book Range
9 books · 1 yds spread
- FanDuel 9.5
- Hard Rock Bet 9.5
- ESPN Bet 9.5
- Fliff 9.5
- PrizePicks 9.5
- Underdog 9.5
- DraftKings 10.5
- BetMGM 10.5
- DK Pick6 10.5
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 10.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | @ CLE | 9 | under |
| 2026-10-11 | @ ATL | 5 | under |
| 2026-10-04 | vs TEN | 22 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | @ DAL | 0 | under |
| 2026-09-20 | vs NO | 12 | over |
| 2026-09-13 | @ IND | 10 | under |
| 2025-11-09 | @ MIN | 12 | over |
| 2025-10-30 | @ MIA | 13 | over |
| 2025-10-26 | vs CHI | 0 | under |
| 2025-10-12 | vs LA | 28 | over |
| 2025-10-05 | vs HOU | 9 | under |
| 2025-09-28 | @ KC | 41 | over |
| 2025-09-22 | vs DET | 45 | over |
| 2025-09-14 | vs CLE | 18 | over |
| 2025-09-07 | @ BUF | 3 | under |