← NFL board3 straight over
Justice Hill
BAL vs CIN · Sun 1:00 PM ETReceptions · 1.5 at BetMGM ·
47Signal · over 1.560% · 6 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
6 / 10Cleared the number in 6 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 2.2 a game recently
Expected receptions: 1.7 against 1.5 · over 47%, under 53%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 1.5 · Oct 12, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -1.5| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-12 | LA | 5 over | +3.5 |
| 2025-10-26 | CHI | 0 under | −1.5 |
| 2025-10-30 | MIA | 2 over | +0.5 |
| 2025-11-09 | MIN | 1 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | IND | 1 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | NO | 2 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | DAL | 0 under | −1.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | TEN | 2 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | ATL | 2 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | CLE | 3 over | +1.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 6 / 10 | 60% over | +0.3 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 60% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
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Book Range
1.56 books, no line disagreementMGM · HR · FD · FL · DK · ESPN· best price at 1.5: MGM -150
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 1.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | @ CLE | 3 | over |
| 2026-10-11 | @ ATL | 2 | over |
| 2026-10-04 | vs TEN | 2 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | @ DAL | 0 | under |
| 2026-09-20 | vs NO | 2 | over |
| 2026-09-13 | @ IND | 1 | under |
| 2025-11-09 | @ MIN | 1 | under |
| 2025-10-30 | @ MIA | 2 | over |
| 2025-10-26 | vs CHI | 0 | under |
| 2025-10-12 | vs LA | 5 | over |
| 2025-10-05 | vs HOU | 1 | under |
| 2025-09-28 | @ KC | 5 | over |
| 2025-09-22 | vs DET | 3 | over |
| 2025-09-14 | vs CLE | 3 | over |
| 2025-09-07 | @ BUF | 1 | under |