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Kendrick Bourne
ARI @ DAL · Sun 1:00 PM ETReceiving Yards · 37.5 at BetMGM · median 36.5 ·
53Signal · under 37.570% · 7 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
3 / 10Cleared the number in 3 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 6.0 a game recently → 6.4 this game
- WR2 on the depth chart (usually WR3) · ×1.07 targets
- vs DAL · ×1.05 yds per target
- Heavier load · ×1.02 yds per target
Expected receiving yards: 44.9 yds against 37.5 · over 47%, under 53%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 37.5 · Dec 14, 2025 – Oct 25, 2026
Worst miss -37 on the under| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-14 | TEN | 17 under | −20.5 |
| 2025-12-22 | IND | 27 under | −10.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | CHI | 25 under | −12.5 |
| 2026-01-03 | SEA | 0 under | −37.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | LAC | 75 over | +37.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | SEA | 11 under | −26.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | SF | 22 under | −15.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | DET | 70 over | +32.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | LA | 47 over | +9.5 |
| 2026-10-25 | DEN | 9 under | −28.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 7 / 10 | 70% under | +7 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 70% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
Try every Pro feature free for 7 days, no card
Book Range
10 books · 3 yds spreadEasiest number for the under: 37.5
- Bally Bet 34.5
- betPARX 34.5
- BetRivers 34.5
- ESPN Bet 34.5
- FanDuel 36.5
- DraftKings 36.5
- Hard Rock Bet 36.5
- DK Pick6 36.5
- PrizePicks 36.5
- BetMGM 37.5 (easiest number)
Line movement
- Bally BetMoved from 31.5 to 34.5
- betPARXMoved from 31.5 to 34.5
- BetRiversMoved from 31.5 to 34.5
- ESPN BetMoved from 29.5 to 34.5
- DraftKingsMoved from 31.5 to 36.5
- FanDuelMoved from 32.5 to 36.5
- Hard Rock BetMoved from 32.5 to 36.5
- DK Pick6Moved from 34.5 to 36.5
- BetMGMMoved from 33.5 to 37.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 37.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | vs DEN | 9 | under |
| 2026-10-18 | @ LA | 47 | over |
| 2026-10-11 | vs DET | 70 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | @ SF | 22 | under |
| 2026-09-20 | vs SEA | 11 | under |
| 2026-09-13 | @ LAC | 75 | over |
| 2026-01-03 | vs SEA | 0 | under |
| 2025-12-28 | vs CHI | 25 | under |
| 2025-12-22 | @ IND | 27 | under |
| 2025-12-14 | vs TEN | 17 | under |
| 2025-11-30 | @ CLE | 0 | under |
| 2025-11-09 | vs LA | 19 | under |
| 2025-11-02 | @ NYG | 34 | under |
| 2025-10-26 | @ HOU | 44 | over |
| 2025-10-19 | vs ATL | 14 | under |
| 2025-10-12 | @ TB | 142 | over |
| 2025-10-02 | @ LA | 142 | over |
| 2025-09-28 | vs JAX | 17 | under |
| 2025-09-21 | vs ARI | 38 | over |
| 2025-09-14 | @ NO | 32 | under |