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Michael Wilson
ARI vs DEN · Sun 4:05 PM ETReceiving Yards · 48.5 · median of 10 books ·
46Signal · over 48.570% · 7 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
7 / 10Cleared the number in 7 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 9.7 a game recently
- vs DEN · ×0.96 yds per target
Expected receiving yards: 51.0 yds against 48.5 · over 46%, under 54%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 48.5 · Dec 14, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -30| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-14 | HOU | 54 over | +5.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | ATL | 52 over | +3.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | CIN | 89 over | +40.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | LA | 99 over | +50.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | LAC | 56 over | +7.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | SEA | 18 under | −30.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | SF | 89 over | +40.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | NYG | 95 over | +46.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | DET | 30 under | −18.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | LA | 32 under | −16.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 7 / 10 | 70% over | +13 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 70% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
Try every Pro feature free for 7 days, no card
Book Range
10 books · 4 yds spreadEasiest number for the over: 45.5 · best price BB, PX2, BR -120
- Bally Bet 45.5 -120 (easiest number) (best price at this number)
- betPARX 45.5 -120 (easiest number) (best price at this number)
- BetRivers 45.5 -120 (easiest number) (best price at this number)
- FanDuel 47.5 -114
- Hard Rock Bet 48.5 -115
- ESPN Bet 48.5 -120
- Fliff 48.5 -120
- PrizePicks 48.5
- DraftKings 49.5 -111
- Underdog 49.5
Line movement
- FliffMoved from 49.5 to 48.5
- PrizePicksMoved from 56.5 to 48.5
- DraftKingsMoved from 48.5 to 49.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 48.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | @ LA | 32 | under |
| 2026-10-11 | vs DET | 30 | under |
| 2026-10-04 | @ NYG | 95 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | @ SF | 89 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | vs SEA | 18 | under |
| 2026-09-13 | @ LAC | 56 | over |
| 2026-01-04 | @ LA | 99 | over |
| 2025-12-28 | @ CIN | 89 | over |
| 2025-12-21 | vs ATL | 52 | over |
| 2025-12-14 | @ HOU | 54 | over |
| 2025-12-07 | vs LA | 142 | over |
| 2025-11-30 | @ TB | 36 | under |
| 2025-11-23 | vs JAX | 118 | over |
| 2025-11-16 | vs SF | 185 | over |
| 2025-11-09 | @ SEA | 34 | under |
| 2025-11-03 | @ DAL | 61 | over |
| 2025-10-19 | vs GB | 40 | under |
| 2025-10-12 | @ IND | 44 | under |
| 2025-10-05 | vs TEN | 16 | under |
| 2025-09-25 | vs SEA | 15 | under |
| 2025-09-21 | @ SF | 5 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | vs CAR | 11 | under |
| 2025-09-07 | @ NO | 5 | under |