← NFL board3 straight over
Kyle Pitts
ATL vs SF · Sun 1:00 PM ETReceiving Yards · 36.5 at BetRivers · median 35.5 ·
40Signal · over 36.560% · 6 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
6 / 10Cleared the number in 6 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 3.7 a game recently
- vs SF · ×0.95 yds per target
Expected receiving yards: 26.7 yds against 36.5 · over 40%, under 60%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 36.5 · Dec 11, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -36| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-11 | TB | 166 over | +129.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | ARI | 57 over | +20.5 |
| 2025-12-29 | LA | 16 under | −20.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | NO | 58 over | +21.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | PIT | 0 under | −36.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | CAR | 15 under | −21.5 |
| 2026-09-24 | GB | 5 under | −31.5 |
| 2026-10-05 | NO | 47 over | +10.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | BAL | 42 over | +5.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | CHI | 60 over | +23.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 6 / 10 | 60% over | +10 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 60% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
10 books · 2 yds spreadEasiest number for the over: 34.5 · best price MGM, ESPN -120
- BetMGM 34.5 -120 (easiest number) (best price at this number)
- ESPN Bet 34.5 -120 (easiest number) (best price at this number)
- DraftKings 35.5 -111
- FanDuel 35.5 -114
- Hard Rock Bet 35.5 -115
- Fliff 35.5 -120
- PrizePicks 35.5
- betPARX 36.5 -110
- BetRivers 36.5 -112
- Bally Bet 36.5 -115
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 36.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | vs CHI | 60 | over |
| 2026-10-11 | vs BAL | 42 | over |
| 2026-10-05 | @ NO | 47 | over |
| 2026-09-24 | @ GB | 5 | under |
| 2026-09-20 | vs CAR | 15 | under |
| 2026-09-13 | @ PIT | 0 | under |
| 2026-01-04 | vs NO | 58 | over |
| 2025-12-29 | vs LA | 16 | under |
| 2025-12-21 | @ ARI | 57 | over |
| 2025-12-11 | @ TB | 166 | over |
| 2025-12-07 | vs SEA | 90 | over |
| 2025-11-30 | @ NYJ | 82 | over |
| 2025-11-23 | @ NO | 25 | under |
| 2025-11-16 | vs CAR | 14 | under |
| 2025-11-09 | @ IND | 38 | over |
| 2025-11-02 | @ NE | 38 | over |
| 2025-10-26 | vs MIA | 59 | over |
| 2025-10-19 | @ SF | 62 | over |
| 2025-10-13 | vs BUF | 18 | under |
| 2025-09-28 | vs WAS | 70 | over |
| 2025-09-21 | @ CAR | 39 | over |
| 2025-09-14 | @ MIN | 37 | over |
| 2025-09-07 | vs TB | 59 | over |