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Kyle Pitts
ATL vs SF · Sun 1:00 PM ETReceptions · 3.5 at betPARX ·
59Signal · over 3.550% · 5 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
5 / 10Cleared the number in 5 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 3.7 a game recently
Expected receptions: 2.5 against 3.5 · over 41%, under 59%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 3.5 · Dec 11, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -3.5| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-11 | TB | 11 over | +7.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | ARI | 7 over | +3.5 |
| 2025-12-29 | LA | 2 under | −1.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | NO | 6 over | +2.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | PIT | 0 under | −3.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | CAR | 1 under | −2.5 |
| 2026-09-24 | GB | 1 under | −2.5 |
| 2026-10-05 | NO | 3 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | BAL | 5 over | +1.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | CHI | 5 over | +1.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 5 / 10 | 50% | +0.6 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 50% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
3.59 books, no line disagreementPX2 · BR · FD · HR · BB · FL · DK · ESPN · MGM
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 3.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | vs CHI | 5 | over |
| 2026-10-11 | vs BAL | 5 | over |
| 2026-10-05 | @ NO | 3 | under |
| 2026-09-24 | @ GB | 1 | under |
| 2026-09-20 | vs CAR | 1 | under |
| 2026-09-13 | @ PIT | 0 | under |
| 2026-01-04 | vs NO | 6 | over |
| 2025-12-29 | vs LA | 2 | under |
| 2025-12-21 | @ ARI | 7 | over |
| 2025-12-11 | @ TB | 11 | over |
| 2025-12-07 | vs SEA | 6 | over |
| 2025-11-30 | @ NYJ | 7 | over |
| 2025-11-23 | @ NO | 2 | under |
| 2025-11-16 | vs CAR | 2 | under |
| 2025-11-09 | @ IND | 2 | under |
| 2025-11-02 | @ NE | 4 | over |
| 2025-10-26 | vs MIA | 9 | over |
| 2025-10-19 | @ SF | 7 | over |
| 2025-10-13 | vs BUF | 3 | under |
| 2025-09-28 | vs WAS | 5 | over |
| 2025-09-21 | @ CAR | 4 | over |
| 2025-09-14 | @ MIN | 4 | over |
| 2025-09-07 | vs TB | 7 | over |