← NFL board
Kyren Williams
LA @ LV · Sun 4:25 PM ETRushing Yards · 67.5 at BetMGM · median 63.5 ·
45Signal · over 67.560% · 6 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
6 / 10Cleared the number in 6 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- carries: 13.3 a game recently
- vs LV · ×1.01 yds per carry
Expected rushing yards: 65.9 yds against 67.5 · over 45%, under 55%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 67.5 · Dec 14, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -26| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-14 | DET | 78 over | +10.5 |
| 2025-12-18 | SEA | 70 over | +2.5 |
| 2025-12-29 | ATL | 92 over | +24.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | ARI | 60 under | −7.5 |
| 2026-09-10 | SF | 41 under | −26.5 |
| 2026-09-21 | NYG | 85 over | +17.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | DEN | 88 over | +20.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | PHI | 80 over | +12.5 |
| 2026-10-12 | BUF | 49 under | −18.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | ARI | 50 under | −17.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 6 / 10 | 60% over | +2 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 60% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
Try every Pro feature free for 7 days, no card
Book Range
11 books · 7 yds spreadEasiest number for the over: 60.5
- Fanatics 60.5 -125 (easiest number)
- DraftKings 63.5 -114
- FanDuel 63.5 -114
- betPARX 63.5 -115
- ESPN Bet 63.5 -115
- Hard Rock Bet 63.5 -115
- BetRivers 63.5 -117
- Bally Bet 63.5 -121
- Fliff 64.5 -120
- PrizePicks 65.5
- BetMGM 67.5 -115
Line movement
- DraftKingsMoved from 64.5 to 63.5
- FliffMoved from 63.5 to 64.5
- PrizePicksMoved from 71.5 to 65.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 67.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | vs ARI | 50 | under |
| 2026-10-12 | vs BUF | 49 | under |
| 2026-10-04 | @ PHI | 80 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | @ DEN | 88 | over |
| 2026-09-21 | vs NYG | 85 | over |
| 2026-09-10 | vs SF | 41 | under |
| 2026-01-04 | vs ARI | 60 | under |
| 2025-12-29 | @ ATL | 92 | over |
| 2025-12-18 | @ SEA | 70 | over |
| 2025-12-14 | vs DET | 78 | over |
| 2025-12-07 | @ ARI | 84 | over |
| 2025-11-30 | @ CAR | 72 | over |
| 2025-11-23 | vs TB | 46 | under |
| 2025-11-16 | vs SEA | 91 | over |
| 2025-11-09 | @ SF | 73 | over |
| 2025-11-02 | vs NO | 114 | over |
| 2025-10-19 | @ JAX | 54 | under |
| 2025-10-12 | @ BAL | 50 | under |
| 2025-10-02 | vs SF | 65 | under |
| 2025-09-28 | vs IND | 77 | over |
| 2025-09-21 | @ PHI | 94 | over |
| 2025-09-14 | @ TEN | 66 | under |
| 2025-09-07 | vs HOU | 66 | under |