MarShawn Lloyd

GB @ NE · Sun 4:25 PM ET

Receiving Yards · 2.5 at PrizePicks ·

51Signal · over 2.575% · 6 / 8 · last 10 · the formula's chance

6 / 8

How the formula reads this game

targets: 2.1 a game recently → 1.3 this game
RB2 on the depth chart (usually RB1) · ×0.61 targets

Expected receiving yards: 6.1 yds against 2.5 · over 51%, under 49%

Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 8 games, 8 this season.

Last 10 games against 2.5 · Sep 13, 2026 – Oct 29, 2026

Worst miss -2

Each game against 2.5
Date	Opponent	Result	Margin
—	—	no result	—
—	—	no result	—
2026-09-13	MIN	0 under	−2.5
2026-09-20	NYJ	6 over	+3.5
2026-09-24	ATL	7 over	+4.5
2026-10-04	TB	36 over	+33.5
2026-10-11	CHI	6 over	+3.5
2026-10-18	DAL	0 under	−2.5
2026-10-25	DET	15 over	+12.5
2026-10-29	CAR	9 over	+6.5

The ten-game rate rests on an average clearance under one unit of the stat: a thin habit rather than a wide one.

Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made

Splits

Window	Hits	Rate	Avg margin for the over
Last 5 (with DPB Pro)	Pro
Last 10	6 / 8	75% over	+7
Last 20 (with DPB Pro)	Pro
This season (2026) (with DPB Pro)	Pro
Away (with DPB Pro)	Pro

See whether the 75% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range

2.52 books, no line disagreementPP · UD

Line movement

PrizePicksMoved from 3.5 to 2.5
UnderdogMoved from 3.5 to 2.5

Game log

Date	Opponent	Result	vs 2.5
2026-10-29	vs CAR	9	over
2026-10-25	@ DET	15	over
2026-10-18	vs DAL	0	under
2026-10-11	vs CHI	6	over
2026-10-04	@ TB	36	over
2026-09-24	vs ATL	7	over
2026-09-20	@ NYJ	6	over
2026-09-13	@ MIN	0	under