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Michael Carter
TEN @ CIN · Sun 1:00 PM ETRushing Yards · 12.5 at DraftKings ·
55Signal · over 12.570% · 7 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
7 / 10Cleared the number in 7 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- carries: 6.4 a game recently
- vs CIN · ×1.06 yds per carry
Expected rushing yards: 28.2 yds against 12.5 · over 55%, under 45%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 8 games, 1 this season.
Last 10 games against 12.5 · Nov 9, 2025 – Oct 25, 2026
Worst miss -8| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-09 | SEA | 4 under | −8.5 |
| 2025-11-16 | SF | 6 under | −6.5 |
| 2025-11-23 | JAX | 28 over | +15.5 |
| 2025-11-30 | TB | 17 over | +4.5 |
| 2025-12-07 | LA | 13 over | +0.5 |
| 2025-12-14 | HOU | 56 over | +43.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | ATL | 65 over | +52.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | CIN | 29 over | +16.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | LA | 18 over | +5.5 |
| 2026-10-25 | CLE | 7 under | −5.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 7 / 10 | 70% over | +12 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 70% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
12.54 books, no line disagreementDK · FD · PK6 · PP· best price at 12.5: DK, FD -114
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 12.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | vs CLE | 7 | under |
| 2026-01-04 | @ LA | 18 | over |
| 2025-12-28 | @ CIN | 29 | over |
| 2025-12-21 | vs ATL | 65 | over |
| 2025-12-14 | @ HOU | 56 | over |
| 2025-12-07 | vs LA | 13 | over |
| 2025-11-30 | @ TB | 17 | over |
| 2025-11-23 | vs JAX | 28 | over |
| 2025-11-16 | vs SF | 6 | under |
| 2025-11-09 | @ SEA | 4 | under |
| 2025-10-19 | vs GB | 11 | under |
| 2025-10-12 | @ IND | 34 | over |
| 2025-10-05 | vs TEN | 51 | over |
| 2025-09-25 | vs SEA | 1 | under |