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Michael Penix Jr.
ATL @ TB · Sun 1:00 PM ETPass Attempts · 32.5 at BetMGM · median 31.5 ·
57Signal · under 32.560% · 6 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
4 / 10Cleared the number in 4 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- pass attempts: 28.8 a game recently
Expected pass attempts: 28.8 against 32.5 · over 43%, under 57%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 5 games, 5 this season.
Last 10 games against 32.5 · Oct 13, 2025 – Oct 25, 2026
Worst miss -5.5 on the under| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-13 | BUF | 32 under | −0.5 |
| 2025-10-19 | SF | 38 over | +5.5 |
| 2025-11-02 | NE | 37 over | +4.5 |
| 2025-11-09 | IND | 28 under | −4.5 |
| 2025-11-16 | CAR | 16 under | −16.5 |
| 2026-09-24 | GB | 25 under | −7.5 |
| 2026-10-05 | NO | 20 under | −12.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | BAL | 32 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | CHI | 33 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-10-25 | SF | 34 over | +1.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 6 / 10 | 60% under | +3 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 60% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
7 books · 1 spreadEasiest number for the under: 32.5
- DraftKings 31.5
- ESPN Bet 31.5
- Hard Rock Bet 31.5
- DK Pick6 31.5
- PrizePicks 31.5
- Underdog 31.5
- BetMGM 32.5 (easiest number)
Line movement
- DraftKingsMoved from 32.5 to 31.5
- Hard Rock BetMoved from 32.5 to 31.5
- UnderdogMoved from 32.5 to 31.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 32.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | vs SF | 34 | over |
| 2026-10-18 | vs CHI | 33 | over |
| 2026-10-11 | vs BAL | 32 | under |
| 2026-10-05 | @ NO | 20 | under |
| 2026-09-24 | @ GB | 25 | under |
| 2025-11-16 | vs CAR | 16 | under |
| 2025-11-09 | @ IND | 28 | under |
| 2025-11-02 | @ NE | 37 | over |
| 2025-10-19 | @ SF | 38 | over |
| 2025-10-13 | vs BUF | 32 | under |
| 2025-09-28 | vs WAS | 26 | under |
| 2025-09-21 | @ CAR | 36 | over |
| 2025-09-14 | @ MIN | 21 | under |
| 2025-09-07 | vs TB | 42 | over |