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Michael Penix Jr.
ATL @ TB · Sun 1:00 PM ETPassing TDs · 1.5 at BetRivers ·
52Signal · under 1.570% · 7 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
3 / 10Cleared the number in 3 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- pass attempts: 28.8 a game recently
Expected passing tds: 1.8 against 1.5 · over 48%, under 52%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 5 games, 5 this season.
Last 10 games against 1.5 · Oct 13, 2025 – Oct 25, 2026
Worst miss -1.5 on the under| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-13 | BUF | 1 under | −0.5 |
| 2025-10-19 | SF | 1 under | −0.5 |
| 2025-11-02 | NE | 3 over | +1.5 |
| 2025-11-09 | IND | 1 under | −0.5 |
| 2025-11-16 | CAR | 0 under | −1.5 |
| 2026-09-24 | GB | 1 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-10-05 | NO | 1 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | BAL | 1 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | CHI | 3 over | +1.5 |
| 2026-10-25 | SF | 3 over | +1.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 7 / 10 | 70% under | 0 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 70% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
1.59 books, no line disagreementBB · PX2 · BR · DK · ESPN · FD · HR · MGM · FAN
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 1.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | vs SF | 3 | over |
| 2026-10-18 | vs CHI | 3 | over |
| 2026-10-11 | vs BAL | 1 | under |
| 2026-10-05 | @ NO | 1 | under |
| 2026-09-24 | @ GB | 1 | under |
| 2025-11-16 | vs CAR | 0 | under |
| 2025-11-09 | @ IND | 1 | under |
| 2025-11-02 | @ NE | 3 | over |
| 2025-10-19 | @ SF | 1 | under |
| 2025-10-13 | vs BUF | 1 | under |
| 2025-09-28 | vs WAS | 2 | over |
| 2025-09-21 | @ CAR | 0 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | @ MIN | 0 | under |
| 2025-09-07 | vs TB | 1 | under |