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Puka Nacua
LA @ LV · Sun 4:25 PM ETReceptions · 8.5 at Fliff ·
51Signal · under 8.550% · 5 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
5 / 10Cleared the number in 5 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 13.0 a game recently
Expected receptions: 9.3 against 8.5 · over 49%, under 51%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 4 games, 4 this season.
Last 10 games against 8.5 · Nov 30, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -3.5| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-30 | CAR | 6 under | −2.5 |
| 2025-12-07 | ARI | 7 under | −1.5 |
| 2025-12-14 | DET | 9 over | +0.5 |
| 2025-12-18 | SEA | 12 over | +3.5 |
| 2025-12-29 | ATL | 5 under | −3.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | ARI | 10 over | +1.5 |
| 2026-09-10 | SF | 5 under | −3.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | PHI | 9 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-10-12 | BUF | 17 over | +8.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | ARI | 6 under | −2.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 5 / 10 | 50% | +0.1 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 50% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
10 books · 1 spread
- ESPN Bet 7.5
- DraftKings 7.5
- BetMGM 7.5
- Fanatics 7.5
- betPARX 8.5
- BetRivers 8.5
- Hard Rock Bet 8.5
- Bally Bet 8.5
- Fliff 8.5
- FanDuel 8.5
Line movement
- FanDuelMoved from 7.5 to 8.5
- FliffMoved from 7.5 to 8.5
- Hard Rock BetMoved from 7.5 to 8.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 8.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | vs ARI | 6 | under |
| 2026-10-12 | vs BUF | 17 | over |
| 2026-10-04 | @ PHI | 9 | over |
| 2026-09-10 | vs SF | 5 | under |
| 2026-01-04 | vs ARI | 10 | over |
| 2025-12-29 | @ ATL | 5 | under |
| 2025-12-18 | @ SEA | 12 | over |
| 2025-12-14 | vs DET | 9 | over |
| 2025-12-07 | @ ARI | 7 | under |
| 2025-11-30 | @ CAR | 6 | under |
| 2025-11-23 | vs TB | 7 | under |
| 2025-11-16 | vs SEA | 7 | under |
| 2025-11-09 | @ SF | 5 | under |
| 2025-11-02 | vs NO | 7 | under |
| 2025-10-12 | @ BAL | 2 | under |
| 2025-10-02 | vs SF | 10 | over |
| 2025-09-28 | vs IND | 13 | over |
| 2025-09-21 | @ PHI | 11 | over |
| 2025-09-14 | @ TEN | 8 | under |
| 2025-09-07 | vs HOU | 10 | over |