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Sam Darnold
SEA vs KC · Sun 8:20 PM ETPassing Yards · 224.5 at Fliff ·
56Signal · over 224.550% · 5 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
5 / 10Cleared the number in 5 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- pass attempts: 29.8 a game recently
Expected passing yards: 206.6 yds against 224.5 · over 44%, under 56%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 5 games, 5 this season.
Last 10 games against 224.5 · Dec 7, 2025 – Oct 15, 2026
Worst miss -211| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-07 | ATL | 249 over | +24.5 |
| 2025-12-14 | IND | 271 over | +46.5 |
| 2025-12-18 | LA | 270 over | +45.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | CAR | 147 under | −77.5 |
| 2026-01-03 | SF | 198 under | −26.5 |
| 2026-09-09 | NE | 13 under | −211.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | WAS | 379 over | +154.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | LAC | 168 under | −56.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | SF | 195 under | −29.5 |
| 2026-10-15 | DEN | 278 over | +53.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 5 / 10 | 50% | -8 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 50% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
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Book Range
11 books · 3 yds spread
- Bally Bet 222.5
- betPARX 222.5
- BetRivers 222.5
- DraftKings 223.5
- ESPN Bet 224.5
- BetMGM 224.5
- Hard Rock Bet 224.5
- Fliff 224.5
- PrizePicks 224.5
- Underdog 224.5
- FanDuel 225.5
Line movement
- DraftKingsMoved from 224.5 to 223.5
- Hard Rock BetMoved from 225.5 to 224.5
- PrizePicksMoved from 223.5 to 224.5
- FanDuelMoved from 224.5 to 225.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 224.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 | @ DEN | 278 | over |
| 2026-10-11 | vs SF | 195 | under |
| 2026-10-04 | vs LAC | 168 | under |
| 2026-09-27 | @ WAS | 379 | over |
| 2026-09-09 | vs NE | 13 | under |
| 2026-01-03 | @ SF | 198 | under |
| 2025-12-28 | @ CAR | 147 | under |
| 2025-12-18 | vs LA | 270 | over |
| 2025-12-14 | vs IND | 271 | over |
| 2025-12-07 | @ ATL | 249 | over |
| 2025-11-30 | vs MIN | 128 | under |
| 2025-11-23 | @ TEN | 244 | over |
| 2025-11-16 | @ LA | 279 | over |
| 2025-11-09 | vs ARI | 178 | under |
| 2025-11-02 | @ WAS | 330 | over |
| 2025-10-20 | vs HOU | 213 | under |
| 2025-10-12 | @ JAX | 295 | over |
| 2025-10-05 | vs TB | 341 | over |
| 2025-09-25 | @ ARI | 242 | over |
| 2025-09-21 | vs NO | 218 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | @ PIT | 295 | over |
| 2025-09-07 | vs SF | 150 | under |