← NFL board3 straight over
Sam Roush
CHI @ SEA · Mon 8:20 PM ETReceiving Yards · 5.5 · median of 4 books ·
52Signal · over 5.5100% · 3 / 3 · last 10 · the formula's chance
3 / 3Cleared the number in 3 of 3 games, 7 without a result
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 1.7 a game recently → 2.0 this game
- TE2 on the depth chart (usually TE3) · ×1.22 targets
- vs SEA · ×0.97 yds per target
- Heavier load · ×0.77 yds per target
Expected receiving yards: 10.0 yds against 5.5 · over 52%, under 48%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 3 games, 3 this season.
Last 10 games against 5.5 · Sep 20, 2026 – Oct 4, 2026
Tightest clearance +3| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| — | — | no result | — |
| — | — | no result | — |
| — | — | no result | — |
| — | — | no result | — |
| — | — | no result | — |
| — | — | no result | — |
| — | — | no result | — |
| 2026-09-20 | MIN | 9 over | +3.5 |
| 2026-09-28 | PHI | 16 over | +10.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | NYJ | 8 over | +2.5 |
The ten-game rate rests on an average clearance under one unit of the stat: a thin habit rather than a wide one.
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 3 / 3 | 100% over | +6 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 100% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
5.54 books, no line disagreementFD · HR · DK · PP· best price at 5.5: FD -114
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 5.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-04 | vs NYJ | 8 | over |
| 2026-09-28 | vs PHI | 16 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | vs MIN | 9 | over |