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Tez Johnson
TB vs ATL · Sun 1:00 PM ETReceiving Yards · 21.5 at Hard Rock Bet ·
53Signal · under 21.570% · 7 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
3 / 10Cleared the number in 3 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 2.1 a game recently
- vs ATL · ×1.01 yds per target
Expected receiving yards: 25.6 yds against 21.5 · over 47%, under 53%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 7 games, 7 this season.
Last 10 games against 21.5 · Dec 21, 2025 – Oct 25, 2026
Worst miss -42 on the under| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-21 | CAR | -1 under | −22.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | MIA | 19 under | −2.5 |
| 2026-01-03 | CAR | 17 under | −4.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | CIN | 0 under | −21.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | CLE | 49 over | +27.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | MIN | 8 under | −13.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | GB | 17 under | −4.5 |
| 2026-10-08 | DAL | 64 over | +42.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | PIT | 7 under | −14.5 |
| 2026-10-25 | CAR | 33 over | +11.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 7 / 10 | 70% under | 0 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 70% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
6 books · 1 yds spreadEasiest number for the under: 21.5
- ESPN Bet 20.5
- DraftKings 21.5 (easiest number)
- FanDuel 21.5 (easiest number)
- Hard Rock Bet 21.5 (easiest number)
- Fliff 21.5 (easiest number)
- PrizePicks 21.5 (easiest number)
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 21.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | @ CAR | 33 | over |
| 2026-10-18 | vs PIT | 7 | under |
| 2026-10-08 | @ DAL | 64 | over |
| 2026-10-04 | vs GB | 17 | under |
| 2026-09-27 | vs MIN | 8 | under |
| 2026-09-20 | vs CLE | 49 | over |
| 2026-09-13 | @ CIN | 0 | under |
| 2026-01-03 | vs CAR | 17 | under |
| 2025-12-28 | @ MIA | 19 | under |
| 2025-12-21 | @ CAR | -1 | under |
| 2025-12-11 | vs ATL | 0 | under |
| 2025-11-30 | vs ARI | 5 | under |
| 2025-11-23 | @ LA | 21 | under |
| 2025-11-16 | @ BUF | 6 | under |
| 2025-11-09 | vs NE | 42 | over |
| 2025-10-26 | @ NO | 43 | over |
| 2025-10-20 | @ DET | 58 | over |
| 2025-10-12 | vs SF | 45 | over |
| 2025-10-05 | @ SEA | 59 | over |
| 2025-09-28 | vs PHI | 8 | under |
| 2025-09-21 | vs NYJ | 0 | under |
| 2025-09-07 | @ ATL | 0 | under |