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Tez Johnson
TB vs ATL · Sun 1:00 PM ETReceptions · 1.5 at Fliff ·
56Signal · under 1.560% · 6 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
4 / 10Cleared the number in 4 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 2.1 a game recently
Expected receptions: 1.3 against 1.5 · over 44%, under 56%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 7 games, 7 this season.
Last 10 games against 1.5 · Dec 21, 2025 – Oct 25, 2026
Worst miss -0.5 on the under| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-21 | CAR | 1 under | −0.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | MIA | 2 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-01-03 | CAR | 1 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | CIN | 0 under | −1.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | CLE | 1 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | MIN | 1 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | GB | 2 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-10-08 | DAL | 1 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | PIT | 2 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-10-25 | CAR | 2 over | +0.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 6 / 10 | 60% under | +0.2 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 60% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
1.56 books, no line disagreementFD · FL · HR · DK · ESPN · PP
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 1.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | @ CAR | 2 | over |
| 2026-10-18 | vs PIT | 2 | over |
| 2026-10-08 | @ DAL | 1 | under |
| 2026-10-04 | vs GB | 2 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | vs MIN | 1 | under |
| 2026-09-20 | vs CLE | 1 | under |
| 2026-09-13 | @ CIN | 0 | under |
| 2026-01-03 | vs CAR | 1 | under |
| 2025-12-28 | @ MIA | 2 | over |
| 2025-12-21 | @ CAR | 1 | under |
| 2025-12-11 | vs ATL | 0 | under |
| 2025-11-30 | vs ARI | 1 | under |
| 2025-11-23 | @ LA | 3 | over |
| 2025-11-16 | @ BUF | 1 | under |
| 2025-11-09 | vs NE | 4 | over |
| 2025-10-26 | @ NO | 5 | over |
| 2025-10-20 | @ DET | 4 | over |
| 2025-10-12 | vs SF | 1 | under |
| 2025-10-05 | @ SEA | 4 | over |
| 2025-09-28 | vs PHI | 1 | under |
| 2025-09-21 | vs NYJ | 0 | under |
| 2025-09-07 | @ ATL | 0 | under |