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Van Jefferson
WAS vs LA · Sun 1:00 PM ETReceiving Yards · 10.5 at Fliff · median 9.5 ·
53Signal · over 10.580% · 8 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
8 / 10Cleared the number in 8 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 3.1 a game recently
- vs LA · ×0.99 yds per target
Expected receiving yards: 20.2 yds against 10.5 · over 53%, under 47%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 8 games, 1 this season.
Last 10 games against 10.5 · Oct 26, 2025 – Nov 1, 2026
Worst miss -10| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-26 | IND | 6 under | −4.5 |
| 2025-11-02 | LAC | 21 over | +10.5 |
| 2025-11-16 | HOU | 22 over | +11.5 |
| 2025-11-23 | SEA | 11 over | +0.5 |
| 2025-11-30 | JAX | 20 over | +9.5 |
| 2025-12-07 | CLE | 17 over | +6.5 |
| 2025-12-14 | SF | 43 over | +32.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | KC | 24 over | +13.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | NO | 46 over | +35.5 |
| 2026-11-01 | PHI | 0 under | −10.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 8 / 10 | 80% over | +11 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 80% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
2 books · 1 yds spreadEasiest number for the over: 9.5
- Underdog 9.5 (easiest number)
- Fliff 10.5 -115
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 10.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-01 | vs PHI | 0 | under |
| 2025-12-28 | vs NO | 46 | over |
| 2025-12-21 | vs KC | 24 | over |
| 2025-12-14 | @ SF | 43 | over |
| 2025-12-07 | @ CLE | 17 | over |
| 2025-11-30 | vs JAX | 20 | over |
| 2025-11-23 | vs SEA | 11 | over |
| 2025-11-16 | vs HOU | 22 | over |
| 2025-11-02 | vs LAC | 21 | over |
| 2025-10-26 | @ IND | 6 | under |
| 2025-10-19 | vs NE | 41 | over |
| 2025-10-12 | @ LV | 75 | over |
| 2025-09-28 | @ HOU | 6 | under |
| 2025-09-21 | vs IND | 8 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | vs LA | 10 | under |