← NFL board3 straight over
Zay Flowers
BAL vs CIN · Sun 1:00 PM ETReceptions · 5.5 at PrizePicks ·
50Signal · over 5.550% · 5 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
5 / 10Cleared the number in 5 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 8.4 a game recently
Expected receptions: 6.4 against 5.5 · over 50%, under 50%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 5 games, 5 this season.
Last 10 games against 5.5 · Dec 7, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -2.5| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-07 | PIT | 8 over | +2.5 |
| 2025-12-14 | CIN | 3 under | −2.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | NE | 7 over | +1.5 |
| 2025-12-27 | GB | 4 under | −1.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | PIT | 4 under | −1.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | IND | 5 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | DAL | 5 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | TEN | 8 over | +2.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | ATL | 8 over | +2.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | CLE | 6 over | +0.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 5 / 10 | 50% | +0.3 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 50% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
5.52 books, no line disagreementPP · UD
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 5.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | @ CLE | 6 | over |
| 2026-10-11 | @ ATL | 8 | over |
| 2026-10-04 | vs TEN | 8 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | @ DAL | 5 | under |
| 2026-09-13 | @ IND | 5 | under |
| 2026-01-04 | @ PIT | 4 | under |
| 2025-12-27 | @ GB | 4 | under |
| 2025-12-21 | vs NE | 7 | over |
| 2025-12-14 | @ CIN | 3 | under |
| 2025-12-07 | vs PIT | 8 | over |
| 2025-11-27 | vs CIN | 2 | under |
| 2025-11-23 | vs NYJ | 5 | under |
| 2025-11-16 | @ CLE | 3 | under |
| 2025-11-09 | @ MIN | 4 | under |
| 2025-10-30 | @ MIA | 5 | under |
| 2025-10-26 | vs CHI | 7 | over |
| 2025-10-12 | vs LA | 6 | over |
| 2025-10-05 | vs HOU | 5 | under |
| 2025-09-28 | @ KC | 7 | over |
| 2025-09-22 | vs DET | 2 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | vs CLE | 7 | over |
| 2025-09-07 | @ BUF | 7 | over |