Zay Flowers

BAL vs CIN · Sun 1:00 PM ET

Receptions · 5.5 at Underdog ·

50Signal · over 5.550% · 5 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance

5 / 10

3 straight over

How the formula reads this game

targets: 8.4 a game recently

Expected receptions: 6.4 against 5.5 · over 50%, under 50%

Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 5 games, 5 this season.

Last 10 games against 5.5 · Dec 7, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026

Worst miss -2.5

Each game against 5.5
Date	Opponent	Result	Margin
2025-12-07	PIT	8 over	+2.5
2025-12-14	CIN	3 under	−2.5
2025-12-21	NE	7 over	+1.5
2025-12-27	GB	4 under	−1.5
2026-01-04	PIT	4 under	−1.5
2026-09-13	IND	5 under	−0.5
2026-09-27	DAL	5 under	−0.5
2026-10-04	TEN	8 over	+2.5
2026-10-11	ATL	8 over	+2.5
2026-10-18	CLE	6 over	+0.5

Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made

Splits

Window	Hits	Rate	Avg margin
Last 5 (with DPB Pro)	Pro
Last 10	5 / 10	50%	+0.3
Last 20 (with DPB Pro)	Pro
This season (2026) (with DPB Pro)	Pro
Home (with DPB Pro)	Pro

See whether the 50% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range

5.52 books, no line disagreementPP · UD

Line movement

No book has moved its number since first posting it.

Game log

Date	Opponent	Result	vs 5.5
2026-10-18	@ CLE	6	over
2026-10-11	@ ATL	8	over
2026-10-04	vs TEN	8	over
2026-09-27	@ DAL	5	under
2026-09-13	@ IND	5	under
2026-01-04	@ PIT	4	under
2025-12-27	@ GB	4	under
2025-12-21	vs NE	7	over
2025-12-14	@ CIN	3	under
2025-12-07	vs PIT	8	over
2025-11-27	vs CIN	2	under
2025-11-23	vs NYJ	5	under
2025-11-16	@ CLE	3	under
2025-11-09	@ MIN	4	under
2025-10-30	@ MIA	5	under
2025-10-26	vs CHI	7	over
2025-10-12	vs LA	6	over
2025-10-05	vs HOU	5	under
2025-09-28	@ KC	7	over
2025-09-22	vs DET	2	under
2025-09-14	vs CLE	7	over
2025-09-07	@ BUF	7	over