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Baker Mayfield
TB @ CAR · Sun 1:00 PM ETPass Attempts · 34.5 at Fanatics · median 33.5 ·
56Signal · under 34.590% · 9 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
1 / 10Cleared the number in 1 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- pass attempts: 32.0 a game recently
Expected pass attempts: 32.0 against 34.5 · over 44%, under 56%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 3 games, 3 this season.
Last 10 games against 34.5 · Nov 23, 2025 – Sep 27, 2026
Worst miss -9.5 on the under| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-23 | LA | 19 under | −15.5 |
| 2025-11-30 | ARI | 28 under | −6.5 |
| 2025-12-07 | NO | 30 under | −4.5 |
| 2025-12-11 | ATL | 34 under | −0.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | CAR | 26 under | −8.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | MIA | 44 over | +9.5 |
| 2026-01-03 | CAR | 22 under | −12.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | CIN | 28 under | −6.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | CLE | 34 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | MIN | 34 under | −0.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 9 / 10 | 90% under | +4.6 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 90% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
7 books · 1 spreadEasiest number for the under: 34.5
- betPARX 33.5
- Bally Bet 33.5
- Hard Rock Bet 33.5
- DraftKings 33.5
- Fliff 33.5
- PrizePicks 33.5
- Fanatics 34.5 (easiest number)
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 34.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-27 | vs MIN | 34 | under |
| 2026-09-20 | vs CLE | 34 | under |
| 2026-09-13 | @ CIN | 28 | under |
| 2026-01-03 | vs CAR | 22 | under |
| 2025-12-28 | @ MIA | 44 | over |
| 2025-12-21 | @ CAR | 26 | under |
| 2025-12-11 | vs ATL | 34 | under |
| 2025-12-07 | vs NO | 30 | under |
| 2025-11-30 | vs ARI | 28 | under |
| 2025-11-23 | @ LA | 19 | under |
| 2025-11-16 | @ BUF | 28 | under |
| 2025-11-09 | vs NE | 43 | over |
| 2025-10-26 | @ NO | 24 | under |
| 2025-10-20 | @ DET | 50 | over |
| 2025-10-12 | vs SF | 23 | under |
| 2025-10-05 | @ SEA | 33 | under |
| 2025-09-28 | vs PHI | 40 | over |
| 2025-09-21 | vs NYJ | 29 | under |
| 2025-09-15 | @ HOU | 38 | over |
| 2025-09-07 | @ ATL | 32 | under |