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Baker Mayfield
TB @ CAR · Sun 1:00 PM ETPass Attempts · 33.5 at Hard Rock Bet ·
55Signal · under 33.560% · 6 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
4 / 10Cleared the number in 4 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- pass attempts: 32.0 a game recently
Expected pass attempts: 32.0 against 33.5 · over 45%, under 55%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 3 games, 3 this season.
Last 10 games against 33.5 · Nov 23, 2025 – Sep 27, 2026
Worst miss -10.5 on the under| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-23 | LA | 19 under | −14.5 |
| 2025-11-30 | ARI | 28 under | −5.5 |
| 2025-12-07 | NO | 30 under | −3.5 |
| 2025-12-11 | ATL | 34 over | +0.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | CAR | 26 under | −7.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | MIA | 44 over | +10.5 |
| 2026-01-03 | CAR | 22 under | −11.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | CIN | 28 under | −5.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | CLE | 34 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | MIN | 34 over | +0.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 6 / 10 | 60% under | +3.6 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 60% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
Try every Pro feature free for 7 days, no card
Book Range
7 books · 1 spreadEasiest number for the under: 34.5
- betPARX 33.5
- Bally Bet 33.5
- Hard Rock Bet 33.5
- DraftKings 33.5
- Fliff 33.5
- PrizePicks 33.5
- Fanatics 34.5 (easiest number)
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 33.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-27 | vs MIN | 34 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | vs CLE | 34 | over |
| 2026-09-13 | @ CIN | 28 | under |
| 2026-01-03 | vs CAR | 22 | under |
| 2025-12-28 | @ MIA | 44 | over |
| 2025-12-21 | @ CAR | 26 | under |
| 2025-12-11 | vs ATL | 34 | over |
| 2025-12-07 | vs NO | 30 | under |
| 2025-11-30 | vs ARI | 28 | under |
| 2025-11-23 | @ LA | 19 | under |
| 2025-11-16 | @ BUF | 28 | under |
| 2025-11-09 | vs NE | 43 | over |
| 2025-10-26 | @ NO | 24 | under |
| 2025-10-20 | @ DET | 50 | over |
| 2025-10-12 | vs SF | 23 | under |
| 2025-10-05 | @ SEA | 33 | under |
| 2025-09-28 | vs PHI | 40 | over |
| 2025-09-21 | vs NYJ | 29 | under |
| 2025-09-15 | @ HOU | 38 | over |
| 2025-09-07 | @ ATL | 32 | under |