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Bo Nix
DEN @ ARI · Sun 4:05 PM ETPass Attempts · 31.5 at Hard Rock Bet · median 32.5 ·
54Signal · over 31.550% · 5 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
5 / 10Cleared the number in 5 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- pass attempts: 31.5 a game recently
Expected pass attempts: 31.5 against 31.5 · over 46%, under 54%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 31.5 · Dec 14, 2025 – Oct 15, 2026
Worst miss -8.5| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-14 | GB | 34 over | +2.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | JAX | 47 over | +15.5 |
| 2025-12-25 | KC | 38 over | +6.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | LAC | 23 under | −8.5 |
| 2026-09-14 | KC | 28 under | −3.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | JAX | 31 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | LA | 34 over | +2.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | SF | 42 over | +10.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | LAC | 27 under | −4.5 |
| 2026-10-15 | SEA | 27 under | −4.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 5 / 10 | 50% | +1.6 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 50% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
9 books · 1 spread
- Hard Rock Bet 31.5
- BetMGM 32.5
- DraftKings 32.5
- ESPN Bet 32.5
- Fliff 32.5
- Bally Bet 32.5
- betPARX 32.5
- PrizePicks 32.5
- Underdog 32.5
Line movement
- Hard Rock BetMoved from 32.5 to 31.5
- Bally BetMoved from 33.5 to 32.5
- betPARXMoved from 33.5 to 32.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 31.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 | vs SEA | 27 | under |
| 2026-10-11 | @ LAC | 27 | under |
| 2026-10-04 | @ SF | 42 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | vs LA | 34 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | vs JAX | 31 | under |
| 2026-09-14 | @ KC | 28 | under |
| 2026-01-04 | vs LAC | 23 | under |
| 2025-12-25 | @ KC | 38 | over |
| 2025-12-21 | vs JAX | 47 | over |
| 2025-12-14 | vs GB | 34 | over |
| 2025-12-07 | @ LV | 38 | over |
| 2025-11-30 | @ WAS | 45 | over |
| 2025-11-16 | vs KC | 37 | over |
| 2025-11-06 | vs LV | 28 | under |
| 2025-11-02 | @ HOU | 37 | over |
| 2025-10-26 | vs DAL | 29 | under |
| 2025-10-19 | vs NYG | 50 | over |
| 2025-10-12 | @ NYJ | 30 | under |
| 2025-10-05 | @ PHI | 39 | over |
| 2025-09-29 | vs CIN | 42 | over |
| 2025-09-21 | @ LAC | 25 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | @ IND | 30 | under |
| 2025-09-07 | vs TEN | 40 | over |