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Bo Nix
DEN @ ARI · Sun 4:05 PM ETPassing TDs · 1.5 at ESPN Bet ·
59Signal · under 1.580% · 8 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
2 / 10Cleared the number in 2 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- pass attempts: 31.5 a game recently
Expected passing tds: 1.0 against 1.5 · over 41%, under 59%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 1.5 · Dec 14, 2025 – Oct 15, 2026
Worst miss -2.5 on the under| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-14 | GB | 4 over | +2.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | JAX | 1 under | −0.5 |
| 2025-12-25 | KC | 1 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | LAC | 0 under | −1.5 |
| 2026-09-14 | KC | 1 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | JAX | 1 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | LA | 2 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | SF | 1 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | LAC | 1 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-10-15 | SEA | 0 under | −1.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 8 / 10 | 80% under | +0.3 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 80% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
1.511 books, no line disagreementBB · MGM · PX2 · BR · ESPN · DK · FD · HR · FAN · FL · PK6
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 1.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 | vs SEA | 0 | under |
| 2026-10-11 | @ LAC | 1 | under |
| 2026-10-04 | @ SF | 1 | under |
| 2026-09-27 | vs LA | 2 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | vs JAX | 1 | under |
| 2026-09-14 | @ KC | 1 | under |
| 2026-01-04 | vs LAC | 0 | under |
| 2025-12-25 | @ KC | 1 | under |
| 2025-12-21 | vs JAX | 1 | under |
| 2025-12-14 | vs GB | 4 | over |
| 2025-12-07 | @ LV | 0 | under |
| 2025-11-30 | @ WAS | 1 | under |
| 2025-11-16 | vs KC | 0 | under |
| 2025-11-06 | vs LV | 1 | under |
| 2025-11-02 | @ HOU | 2 | over |
| 2025-10-26 | vs DAL | 4 | over |
| 2025-10-19 | vs NYG | 2 | over |
| 2025-10-12 | @ NYJ | 1 | under |
| 2025-10-05 | @ PHI | 1 | under |
| 2025-09-29 | vs CIN | 2 | over |
| 2025-09-21 | @ LAC | 1 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | @ IND | 3 | over |
| 2025-09-07 | vs TEN | 1 | under |