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Bo Nix
DEN @ ARI · Sun 4:05 PM ETRushing Yards · 11.5 at ESPN Bet · median 10.5 ·
65Signal · under 11.580% · 8 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
2 / 10Cleared the number in 2 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- carries: 3.7 a game recently
Expected rushing yards: 6.2 yds against 11.5 · over 35%, under 65%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 11.5 · Dec 14, 2025 – Oct 15, 2026
Worst miss -37 on the under| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-14 | GB | 10 under | −1.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | JAX | 11 under | −0.5 |
| 2025-12-25 | KC | 42 over | +30.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | LAC | 49 over | +37.5 |
| 2026-09-14 | KC | 2 under | −9.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | JAX | 6 under | −5.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | LA | 7 under | −4.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | SF | 10 under | −1.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | LAC | 10 under | −1.5 |
| 2026-10-15 | SEA | 2 under | −9.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 8 / 10 | 80% under | -3 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 80% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
Try every Pro feature free for 7 days, no card
Book Range
12 books · 1 yds spreadEasiest number for the under: 11.5
- DraftKings 10.5
- FanDuel 10.5
- Fanatics 10.5
- Hard Rock Bet 10.5
- Bally Bet 10.5
- betPARX 10.5
- BetRivers 10.5
- Fliff 10.5
- BetMGM 10.5
- DK Pick6 10.5
- PrizePicks 10.5
- ESPN Bet 11.5 (easiest number)
Line movement
- Bally BetMoved from 13.5 to 10.5
- BetMGMMoved from 13.5 to 10.5
- betPARXMoved from 13.5 to 10.5
- BetRiversMoved from 13.5 to 10.5
- DraftKingsMoved from 12.5 to 10.5
- FanDuelMoved from 12.5 to 10.5
- FliffMoved from 12.5 to 10.5
- Hard Rock BetMoved from 12.5 to 10.5
- PrizePicksMoved from 13.5 to 10.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 11.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 | vs SEA | 2 | under |
| 2026-10-11 | @ LAC | 10 | under |
| 2026-10-04 | @ SF | 10 | under |
| 2026-09-27 | vs LA | 7 | under |
| 2026-09-20 | vs JAX | 6 | under |
| 2026-09-14 | @ KC | 2 | under |
| 2026-01-04 | vs LAC | 49 | over |
| 2025-12-25 | @ KC | 42 | over |
| 2025-12-21 | vs JAX | 11 | under |
| 2025-12-14 | vs GB | 10 | under |
| 2025-12-07 | @ LV | 15 | over |
| 2025-11-30 | @ WAS | 16 | over |
| 2025-11-16 | vs KC | 8 | under |
| 2025-11-06 | vs LV | -2 | under |
| 2025-11-02 | @ HOU | 36 | over |
| 2025-10-26 | vs DAL | -1 | under |
| 2025-10-19 | vs NYG | 48 | over |
| 2025-10-12 | @ NYJ | 24 | over |
| 2025-10-05 | @ PHI | 22 | over |
| 2025-09-29 | vs CIN | 7 | under |
| 2025-09-21 | @ LAC | 33 | over |
| 2025-09-14 | @ IND | 20 | over |
| 2025-09-07 | vs TEN | 18 | over |