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Cade Otton
TB @ CAR · Sun 1:00 PM ETReceiving Yards · 40.5 at PrizePicks · median 39.5 ·
59Signal · under 40.580% · 8 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
2 / 10Cleared the number in 2 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 4.8 a game recently
Expected receiving yards: 31.0 yds against 40.5 · over 41%, under 59%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 40.5 · Dec 7, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -53 on the under| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-07 | NO | 19 under | −21.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | CAR | 15 under | −25.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | MIA | 33 under | −7.5 |
| 2026-01-03 | CAR | 94 over | +53.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | CIN | 26 under | −14.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | CLE | 38 under | −2.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | MIN | 56 over | +15.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | GB | 37 under | −3.5 |
| 2026-10-08 | DAL | 25 under | −15.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | PIT | 4 under | −36.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 8 / 10 | 80% under | +6 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 80% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
10 books · 3 yds spreadEasiest number for the under: 40.5
- betPARX 37.5
- BetRivers 37.5
- Bally Bet 37.5
- DraftKings 39.5
- ESPN Bet 39.5
- Underdog 39.5
- FanDuel 40.5 (easiest number)
- Hard Rock Bet 40.5 (easiest number)
- Fliff 40.5 (easiest number)
- PrizePicks 40.5 (easiest number)
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 40.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | vs PIT | 4 | under |
| 2026-10-08 | @ DAL | 25 | under |
| 2026-10-04 | vs GB | 37 | under |
| 2026-09-27 | vs MIN | 56 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | vs CLE | 38 | under |
| 2026-09-13 | @ CIN | 26 | under |
| 2026-01-03 | vs CAR | 94 | over |
| 2025-12-28 | @ MIA | 33 | under |
| 2025-12-21 | @ CAR | 15 | under |
| 2025-12-07 | vs NO | 19 | under |
| 2025-11-30 | vs ARI | 9 | under |
| 2025-11-23 | @ LA | 21 | under |
| 2025-11-16 | @ BUF | 28 | under |
| 2025-11-09 | vs NE | 82 | over |
| 2025-10-26 | @ NO | 40 | under |
| 2025-10-20 | @ DET | 65 | over |
| 2025-10-12 | vs SF | 51 | over |
| 2025-10-05 | @ SEA | 81 | over |
| 2025-09-28 | vs PHI | 9 | under |
| 2025-09-15 | @ HOU | 25 | under |
| 2025-09-07 | @ ATL | 0 | under |