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Caleb Williams
CHI vs NE · Thu 8:15 PM ETPass Attempts · 32.5 at DraftKings ·
70%over7 / 10 · last 10
7 / 10Cleared the number in 7 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- pass attempts: 30.3 a game recently
Expected pass attempts: 30.3 against 32.5 · over 44%, under 56%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 3 games, 3 this season.
Last 10 games against 32.5 · Nov 23, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -6.5| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-23 | PIT | 35 over | +2.5 |
| 2025-11-28 | PHI | 36 over | +3.5 |
| 2025-12-07 | GB | 35 over | +2.5 |
| 2025-12-14 | CLE | 28 under | −4.5 |
| 2025-12-20 | GB | 34 over | +1.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | SF | 42 over | +9.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | DET | 33 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | CAR | 29 under | −3.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | MIN | 26 under | −6.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | ATL | 36 over | +3.5 |
The ten-game rate rests on an average clearance under one unit of the stat: a thin habit rather than a wide one.
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 7 / 10 | 70% over | +0.9 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 70% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
Try every Pro feature free for 7 days, no card
Book Range
10 books · 1 spreadEasiest number for the over: 32.5 · best price FAN -120
- Fanatics 32.5 -120 (easiest number) (best price at this number)
- DraftKings 32.5 -128 (easiest number)
- BetMGM 32.5 -130 (easiest number)
- ESPN Bet 32.5 -130 (easiest number)
- Fliff 32.5 -135 (easiest number)
- Underdog 32.5 (easiest number)
- PrizePicks 33
- Hard Rock Bet 33.5 -105
- betPARX 33.5 -110
- Bally Bet 33.5 -114
Line movement
- FliffMoved from 33.5 to 32.5
- PrizePicksMoved from 32.5 to 33
- Bally BetMoved from 32.5 to 33.5
- betPARXMoved from 32.5 to 33.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 32.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | @ ATL | 36 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | vs MIN | 26 | under |
| 2026-09-13 | @ CAR | 29 | under |
| 2026-01-04 | vs DET | 33 | over |
| 2025-12-28 | @ SF | 42 | over |
| 2025-12-20 | vs GB | 34 | over |
| 2025-12-14 | vs CLE | 28 | under |
| 2025-12-07 | @ GB | 35 | over |
| 2025-11-28 | @ PHI | 36 | over |
| 2025-11-23 | vs PIT | 35 | over |
| 2025-11-16 | @ MIN | 32 | under |
| 2025-11-09 | vs NYG | 36 | over |
| 2025-11-02 | @ CIN | 34 | over |
| 2025-10-26 | @ BAL | 38 | over |
| 2025-10-19 | vs NO | 26 | under |
| 2025-10-13 | @ WAS | 29 | under |
| 2025-09-28 | @ LV | 37 | over |
| 2025-09-21 | vs DAL | 28 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | @ DET | 30 | under |
| 2025-09-08 | vs MIN | 35 | over |