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Caleb Williams
CHI vs NE · Thu 8:15 PM ETPass Attempts · 33 at PrizePicks · median 32.5 ·
67%over6 / 9 · last 10
6 / 9Cleared the number in 6 of 9 games, 1 push
How the formula reads this game
- pass attempts: 30.3 a game recently
Expected pass attempts: 30.3 against 33 · over 43%, under 57% (if it doesn't land exactly on 33)
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 3 games, 3 this season.
Last 10 games against 33 · Nov 23, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -7| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-23 | PIT | 35 over | +2.0 |
| 2025-11-28 | PHI | 36 over | +3.0 |
| 2025-12-07 | GB | 35 over | +2.0 |
| 2025-12-14 | CLE | 28 under | −5.0 |
| 2025-12-20 | GB | 34 over | +1.0 |
| 2025-12-28 | SF | 42 over | +9.0 |
| 2026-01-04 | DET | 33 push | +0.0 |
| 2026-09-13 | CAR | 29 under | −4.0 |
| 2026-09-20 | MIN | 26 under | −7.0 |
| 2026-10-18 | ATL | 36 over | +3.0 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 6 / 9 | 67% over | +0.4 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 67% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
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Book Range
10 books · 1 spreadEasiest number for the over: 32.5 · best price FAN -120
- Fanatics 32.5 -120 (easiest number) (best price at this number)
- DraftKings 32.5 -128 (easiest number)
- BetMGM 32.5 -130 (easiest number)
- ESPN Bet 32.5 -130 (easiest number)
- Fliff 32.5 -135 (easiest number)
- Underdog 32.5 (easiest number)
- PrizePicks 33
- Hard Rock Bet 33.5 -105
- betPARX 33.5 -110
- Bally Bet 33.5 -114
Line movement
- FliffMoved from 33.5 to 32.5
- PrizePicksMoved from 32.5 to 33
- Bally BetMoved from 32.5 to 33.5
- betPARXMoved from 32.5 to 33.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 33 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | @ ATL | 36 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | vs MIN | 26 | under |
| 2026-09-13 | @ CAR | 29 | under |
| 2026-01-04 | vs DET | 33 | push |
| 2025-12-28 | @ SF | 42 | over |
| 2025-12-20 | vs GB | 34 | over |
| 2025-12-14 | vs CLE | 28 | under |
| 2025-12-07 | @ GB | 35 | over |
| 2025-11-28 | @ PHI | 36 | over |
| 2025-11-23 | vs PIT | 35 | over |
| 2025-11-16 | @ MIN | 32 | under |
| 2025-11-09 | vs NYG | 36 | over |
| 2025-11-02 | @ CIN | 34 | over |
| 2025-10-26 | @ BAL | 38 | over |
| 2025-10-19 | vs NO | 26 | under |
| 2025-10-13 | @ WAS | 29 | under |
| 2025-09-28 | @ LV | 37 | over |
| 2025-09-21 | vs DAL | 28 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | @ DET | 30 | under |
| 2025-09-08 | vs MIN | 35 | over |