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Christian McCaffrey
SF @ ATL · Sun 1:00 PM ETCarries · 14.5 at betPARX · median 15.5 ·
43Signal · over 14.560% · 6 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
6 / 10Cleared the number in 6 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- carries: 12.8 a game recently
Expected carries: 12.8 against 14.5 · over 43%, under 57%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 14.5 · Dec 14, 2025 – Oct 19, 2026
Worst miss -6.5| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-14 | TEN | 22 over | +7.5 |
| 2025-12-22 | IND | 21 over | +6.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | CHI | 23 over | +8.5 |
| 2026-01-03 | SEA | 8 under | −6.5 |
| 2026-09-10 | LA | 10 under | −4.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | MIA | 10 under | −4.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | ARI | 15 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | DEN | 15 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | SEA | 11 under | −3.5 |
| 2026-10-19 | WAS | 16 over | +1.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 6 / 10 | 60% over | +0.6 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 60% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
8 books · 1 spreadEasiest number for the over: 14.5 · best price PX2 -127
- betPARX 14.5 -127 (easiest number) (best price at this number)
- Bally Bet 14.5 -132 (easiest number)
- DraftKings 15.5 -104
- Fanatics 15.5 -105
- Hard Rock Bet 15.5 -110
- Fliff 15.5 -115
- PrizePicks 15.5
- Underdog 15.5
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 14.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-19 | vs WAS | 16 | over |
| 2026-10-11 | @ SEA | 11 | under |
| 2026-10-04 | vs DEN | 15 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | vs ARI | 15 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | vs MIA | 10 | under |
| 2026-09-10 | @ LA | 10 | under |
| 2026-01-03 | vs SEA | 8 | under |
| 2025-12-28 | vs CHI | 23 | over |
| 2025-12-22 | @ IND | 21 | over |
| 2025-12-14 | vs TEN | 22 | over |
| 2025-11-30 | @ CLE | 20 | over |
| 2025-11-24 | vs CAR | 24 | over |
| 2025-11-16 | @ ARI | 13 | under |
| 2025-11-09 | vs LA | 12 | under |
| 2025-11-02 | @ NYG | 28 | over |
| 2025-10-26 | @ HOU | 8 | under |
| 2025-10-19 | vs ATL | 24 | over |
| 2025-10-12 | @ TB | 17 | over |
| 2025-10-02 | @ LA | 22 | over |
| 2025-09-28 | vs JAX | 17 | over |
| 2025-09-21 | vs ARI | 17 | over |
| 2025-09-14 | @ NO | 13 | under |
| 2025-09-07 | @ SEA | 22 | over |