← NFL board
Christian McCaffrey
SF @ ATL · Sun 1:00 PM ETCarries · 15.5 at PrizePicks ·
58Signal · under 15.560% · 6 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
4 / 10Cleared the number in 4 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- carries: 12.8 a game recently
Expected carries: 12.8 against 15.5 · over 42%, under 58%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 15.5 · Dec 14, 2025 – Oct 19, 2026
Worst miss -7.5 on the under| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-14 | TEN | 22 over | +6.5 |
| 2025-12-22 | IND | 21 over | +5.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | CHI | 23 over | +7.5 |
| 2026-01-03 | SEA | 8 under | −7.5 |
| 2026-09-10 | LA | 10 under | −5.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | MIA | 10 under | −5.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | ARI | 15 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | DEN | 15 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | SEA | 11 under | −4.5 |
| 2026-10-19 | WAS | 16 over | +0.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 6 / 10 | 60% under | +0.4 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 60% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
Try every Pro feature free for 7 days, no card
Book Range
8 books · 1 spreadEasiest number for the under: 15.5
- betPARX 14.5
- Bally Bet 14.5
- DraftKings 15.5 (easiest number)
- Fanatics 15.5 (easiest number)
- Hard Rock Bet 15.5 (easiest number)
- Fliff 15.5 (easiest number)
- PrizePicks 15.5 (easiest number)
- Underdog 15.5 (easiest number)
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 15.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-19 | vs WAS | 16 | over |
| 2026-10-11 | @ SEA | 11 | under |
| 2026-10-04 | vs DEN | 15 | under |
| 2026-09-27 | vs ARI | 15 | under |
| 2026-09-20 | vs MIA | 10 | under |
| 2026-09-10 | @ LA | 10 | under |
| 2026-01-03 | vs SEA | 8 | under |
| 2025-12-28 | vs CHI | 23 | over |
| 2025-12-22 | @ IND | 21 | over |
| 2025-12-14 | vs TEN | 22 | over |
| 2025-11-30 | @ CLE | 20 | over |
| 2025-11-24 | vs CAR | 24 | over |
| 2025-11-16 | @ ARI | 13 | under |
| 2025-11-09 | vs LA | 12 | under |
| 2025-11-02 | @ NYG | 28 | over |
| 2025-10-26 | @ HOU | 8 | under |
| 2025-10-19 | vs ATL | 24 | over |
| 2025-10-12 | @ TB | 17 | over |
| 2025-10-02 | @ LA | 22 | over |
| 2025-09-28 | vs JAX | 17 | over |
| 2025-09-21 | vs ARI | 17 | over |
| 2025-09-14 | @ NO | 13 | under |
| 2025-09-07 | @ SEA | 22 | over |