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Colston Loveland
CHI vs NE · Thu 8:15 PM ETReceptions · 3.5 at Bally Bet · median 4 ·
60%over6 / 10 · last 10
6 / 10Cleared the number in 6 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 5.0 a game recently
Expected receptions: 3.2 against 3.5 · over 44%, under 56%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 3.5 · Dec 14, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -3.5| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-14 | CLE | 4 over | +0.5 |
| 2025-12-20 | GB | 3 under | −0.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | SF | 6 over | +2.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | DET | 10 over | +6.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | CAR | 0 under | −3.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | MIN | 1 under | −2.5 |
| 2026-09-28 | PHI | 4 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | NYJ | 6 over | +2.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | GB | 2 under | −1.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | ATL | 6 over | +2.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 6 / 10 | 60% over | +0.7 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 60% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
10 books · 1 spreadEasiest number for the over: 3.5 · best price PX2 -175
- betPARX 3.5 -175 (easiest number) (best price at this number)
- BetRivers 3.5 -177 (easiest number)
- FanDuel 3.5 -180 (easiest number)
- Bally Bet 3.5 -182 (easiest number)
- PrizePicks 4
- ESPN Bet 4.5 +130
- DraftKings 4.5 +129
- Hard Rock Bet 4.5 +125
- BetMGM 4.5 +120
- Fliff 4.5 +115
Line movement
- Bally BetMoved from 4.5 to 3.5
- betPARXMoved from 4.5 to 3.5
- BetRiversMoved from 4.5 to 3.5
- DraftKingsMoved from 3.5 to 4.5
- ESPN BetMoved from 3.5 to 4.5
- Hard Rock BetMoved from 3.5 to 4.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 3.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | @ ATL | 6 | over |
| 2026-10-11 | @ GB | 2 | under |
| 2026-10-04 | vs NYJ | 6 | over |
| 2026-09-28 | vs PHI | 4 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | vs MIN | 1 | under |
| 2026-09-13 | @ CAR | 0 | under |
| 2026-01-04 | vs DET | 10 | over |
| 2025-12-28 | @ SF | 6 | over |
| 2025-12-20 | vs GB | 3 | under |
| 2025-12-14 | vs CLE | 4 | over |
| 2025-12-07 | @ GB | 4 | over |
| 2025-11-28 | @ PHI | 3 | under |
| 2025-11-23 | vs PIT | 4 | over |
| 2025-11-16 | @ MIN | 3 | under |
| 2025-11-09 | vs NYG | 4 | over |
| 2025-11-02 | @ CIN | 6 | over |
| 2025-10-26 | @ BAL | 3 | under |
| 2025-10-19 | vs NO | 3 | under |
| 2025-10-13 | @ WAS | 2 | under |
| 2025-09-21 | vs DAL | 1 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | @ DET | 0 | under |
| 2025-09-08 | vs MIN | 2 | under |