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Colston Loveland
CHI vs NE · Thu 8:15 PM ETReceptions · 4 · median of 10 books ·
59Signal · over 450% · 4 / 8 · last 10 · the formula's chance
4 / 8Cleared the number in 4 of 8 games, 2 pushes
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 5.0 a game recently
Expected receptions: 3.2 against 4 · over 41%, under 59% (if it doesn't land exactly on 4)
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 4 · Dec 14, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -4| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-14 | CLE | 4 push | +0.0 |
| 2025-12-20 | GB | 3 under | −1.0 |
| 2025-12-28 | SF | 6 over | +2.0 |
| 2026-01-04 | DET | 10 over | +6.0 |
| 2026-09-13 | CAR | 0 under | −4.0 |
| 2026-09-20 | MIN | 1 under | −3.0 |
| 2026-09-28 | PHI | 4 push | +0.0 |
| 2026-10-04 | NYJ | 6 over | +2.0 |
| 2026-10-11 | GB | 2 under | −2.0 |
| 2026-10-18 | ATL | 6 over | +2.0 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 4 / 8 | 50% | +0.3 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 50% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
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Book Range
10 books · 1 spread
- betPARX 3.5
- BetRivers 3.5
- FanDuel 3.5
- Bally Bet 3.5
- PrizePicks 4
- ESPN Bet 4.5
- DraftKings 4.5
- Hard Rock Bet 4.5
- BetMGM 4.5
- Fliff 4.5
Line movement
- Bally BetMoved from 4.5 to 3.5
- betPARXMoved from 4.5 to 3.5
- BetRiversMoved from 4.5 to 3.5
- DraftKingsMoved from 3.5 to 4.5
- ESPN BetMoved from 3.5 to 4.5
- Hard Rock BetMoved from 3.5 to 4.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 4 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | @ ATL | 6 | over |
| 2026-10-11 | @ GB | 2 | under |
| 2026-10-04 | vs NYJ | 6 | over |
| 2026-09-28 | vs PHI | 4 | push |
| 2026-09-20 | vs MIN | 1 | under |
| 2026-09-13 | @ CAR | 0 | under |
| 2026-01-04 | vs DET | 10 | over |
| 2025-12-28 | @ SF | 6 | over |
| 2025-12-20 | vs GB | 3 | under |
| 2025-12-14 | vs CLE | 4 | push |
| 2025-12-07 | @ GB | 4 | push |
| 2025-11-28 | @ PHI | 3 | under |
| 2025-11-23 | vs PIT | 4 | push |
| 2025-11-16 | @ MIN | 3 | under |
| 2025-11-09 | vs NYG | 4 | push |
| 2025-11-02 | @ CIN | 6 | over |
| 2025-10-26 | @ BAL | 3 | under |
| 2025-10-19 | vs NO | 3 | under |
| 2025-10-13 | @ WAS | 2 | under |
| 2025-09-21 | vs DAL | 1 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | @ DET | 0 | under |
| 2025-09-08 | vs MIN | 2 | under |