← NFL board
Colston Loveland
CHI vs NE · Thu 8:15 PM ETReceptions · 4.5 at ESPN Bet · median 4 ·
60%under6 / 10 · last 10
4 / 10Cleared the number in 4 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 5.0 a game recently
Expected receptions: 3.2 against 4.5 · over 40%, under 60%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 4.5 · Dec 14, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -5.5 on the under| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-14 | CLE | 4 under | −0.5 |
| 2025-12-20 | GB | 3 under | −1.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | SF | 6 over | +1.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | DET | 10 over | +5.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | CAR | 0 under | −4.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | MIN | 1 under | −3.5 |
| 2026-09-28 | PHI | 4 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | NYJ | 6 over | +1.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | GB | 2 under | −2.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | ATL | 6 over | +1.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 6 / 10 | 60% under | +0.3 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 60% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
Try every Pro feature free for 7 days, no card
Book Range
10 books · 1 spreadEasiest number for the under: 4.5
- betPARX 3.5
- BetRivers 3.5
- FanDuel 3.5
- Bally Bet 3.5
- PrizePicks 4
- ESPN Bet 4.5 (easiest number)
- DraftKings 4.5 (easiest number)
- Hard Rock Bet 4.5 (easiest number)
- BetMGM 4.5 (easiest number)
- Fliff 4.5 (easiest number)
Line movement
- Bally BetMoved from 4.5 to 3.5
- betPARXMoved from 4.5 to 3.5
- BetRiversMoved from 4.5 to 3.5
- DraftKingsMoved from 3.5 to 4.5
- ESPN BetMoved from 3.5 to 4.5
- Hard Rock BetMoved from 3.5 to 4.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | @ ATL | 6 | over |
| 2026-10-11 | @ GB | 2 | under |
| 2026-10-04 | vs NYJ | 6 | over |
| 2026-09-28 | vs PHI | 4 | under |
| 2026-09-20 | vs MIN | 1 | under |
| 2026-09-13 | @ CAR | 0 | under |
| 2026-01-04 | vs DET | 10 | over |
| 2025-12-28 | @ SF | 6 | over |
| 2025-12-20 | vs GB | 3 | under |
| 2025-12-14 | vs CLE | 4 | under |
| 2025-12-07 | @ GB | 4 | under |
| 2025-11-28 | @ PHI | 3 | under |
| 2025-11-23 | vs PIT | 4 | under |
| 2025-11-16 | @ MIN | 3 | under |
| 2025-11-09 | vs NYG | 4 | under |
| 2025-11-02 | @ CIN | 6 | over |
| 2025-10-26 | @ BAL | 3 | under |
| 2025-10-19 | vs NO | 3 | under |
| 2025-10-13 | @ WAS | 2 | under |
| 2025-09-21 | vs DAL | 1 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | @ DET | 0 | under |
| 2025-09-08 | vs MIN | 2 | under |