← NFL board3 straight under
Courtland Sutton
DEN @ ARI · Sun 4:05 PM ETReceiving Yards · 33.5 at Hard Rock Bet ·
62Signal · under 33.560% · 6 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
4 / 10Cleared the number in 4 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 4.7 a game recently
- vs ARI · ×1.04 yds per target
Expected receiving yards: 21.2 yds against 33.5 · over 38%, under 62%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 33.5 · Dec 14, 2025 – Oct 15, 2026
Worst miss -79 on the under| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-14 | GB | 113 over | +79.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | JAX | 86 over | +52.5 |
| 2025-12-25 | KC | 40 over | +6.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | LAC | 5 under | −28.5 |
| 2026-09-14 | KC | 11 under | −22.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | JAX | 25 under | −8.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | LA | 46 over | +12.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | SF | 4 under | −29.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | LAC | 18 under | −15.5 |
| 2026-10-15 | SEA | 19 under | −14.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 6 / 10 | 60% under | -3 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 60% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
Try every Pro feature free for 7 days, no card
Book Range
11 books · 4 yds spreadEasiest number for the under: 35.5
- Bally Bet 31.5
- betPARX 31.5
- BetRivers 31.5
- FanDuel 33.5
- DraftKings 33.5
- Hard Rock Bet 33.5
- Fliff 33.5
- DK Pick6 33.5
- ESPN Bet 35.5 (easiest number)
- BetMGM 35.5 (easiest number)
- PrizePicks 35.5 (easiest number)
Line movement
- Bally BetMoved from 34.5 to 31.5
- betPARXMoved from 34.5 to 31.5
- BetRiversMoved from 34.5 to 31.5
- DraftKingsMoved from 35.5 to 33.5
- FanDuelMoved from 35.5 to 33.5
- FliffMoved from 35.5 to 33.5
- Hard Rock BetMoved from 35.5 to 33.5
- DK Pick6Moved from 34.5 to 33.5
- BetMGMMoved from 36.5 to 35.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 33.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 | vs SEA | 19 | under |
| 2026-10-11 | @ LAC | 18 | under |
| 2026-10-04 | @ SF | 4 | under |
| 2026-09-27 | vs LA | 46 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | vs JAX | 25 | under |
| 2026-09-14 | @ KC | 11 | under |
| 2026-01-04 | vs LAC | 5 | under |
| 2025-12-25 | @ KC | 40 | over |
| 2025-12-21 | vs JAX | 86 | over |
| 2025-12-14 | vs GB | 113 | over |
| 2025-12-07 | @ LV | 62 | over |
| 2025-11-30 | @ WAS | 62 | over |
| 2025-11-16 | vs KC | 59 | over |
| 2025-11-06 | vs LV | 24 | under |
| 2025-11-02 | @ HOU | 30 | under |
| 2025-10-26 | vs DAL | 67 | over |
| 2025-10-19 | vs NYG | 87 | over |
| 2025-10-12 | @ NYJ | 17 | under |
| 2025-10-05 | @ PHI | 99 | over |
| 2025-09-29 | vs CIN | 81 | over |
| 2025-09-21 | @ LAC | 118 | over |
| 2025-09-14 | @ IND | 6 | under |
| 2025-09-07 | vs TEN | 61 | over |