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Courtland Sutton
DEN @ ARI · Sun 4:05 PM ETReceiving Yards · 33.5 at DK Pick6 ·
62Signal · under 33.560% · 6 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
4 / 10Cleared the number in 4 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 4.7 a game recently
- vs ARI · ×1.04 yds per target
Expected receiving yards: 21.2 yds against 33.5 · over 38%, under 62%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 33.5 · Dec 14, 2025 – Oct 15, 2026
Worst miss -79 on the under| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-14 | GB | 113 over | +79.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | JAX | 86 over | +52.5 |
| 2025-12-25 | KC | 40 over | +6.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | LAC | 5 under | −28.5 |
| 2026-09-14 | KC | 11 under | −22.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | JAX | 25 under | −8.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | LA | 46 over | +12.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | SF | 4 under | −29.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | LAC | 18 under | −15.5 |
| 2026-10-15 | SEA | 19 under | −14.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 6 / 10 | 60% under | -3 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 60% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
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Book Range
11 books · 4 yds spreadEasiest number for the under: 35.5
- Bally Bet 31.5
- betPARX 31.5
- BetRivers 31.5
- FanDuel 33.5
- DraftKings 33.5
- Hard Rock Bet 33.5
- Fliff 33.5
- DK Pick6 33.5
- ESPN Bet 35.5 (easiest number)
- BetMGM 35.5 (easiest number)
- PrizePicks 35.5 (easiest number)
Line movement
- Bally BetMoved from 34.5 to 31.5
- betPARXMoved from 34.5 to 31.5
- BetRiversMoved from 34.5 to 31.5
- DraftKingsMoved from 35.5 to 33.5
- FanDuelMoved from 35.5 to 33.5
- FliffMoved from 35.5 to 33.5
- Hard Rock BetMoved from 35.5 to 33.5
- DK Pick6Moved from 34.5 to 33.5
- BetMGMMoved from 36.5 to 35.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 33.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 | vs SEA | 19 | under |
| 2026-10-11 | @ LAC | 18 | under |
| 2026-10-04 | @ SF | 4 | under |
| 2026-09-27 | vs LA | 46 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | vs JAX | 25 | under |
| 2026-09-14 | @ KC | 11 | under |
| 2026-01-04 | vs LAC | 5 | under |
| 2025-12-25 | @ KC | 40 | over |
| 2025-12-21 | vs JAX | 86 | over |
| 2025-12-14 | vs GB | 113 | over |
| 2025-12-07 | @ LV | 62 | over |
| 2025-11-30 | @ WAS | 62 | over |
| 2025-11-16 | vs KC | 59 | over |
| 2025-11-06 | vs LV | 24 | under |
| 2025-11-02 | @ HOU | 30 | under |
| 2025-10-26 | vs DAL | 67 | over |
| 2025-10-19 | vs NYG | 87 | over |
| 2025-10-12 | @ NYJ | 17 | under |
| 2025-10-05 | @ PHI | 99 | over |
| 2025-09-29 | vs CIN | 81 | over |
| 2025-09-21 | @ LAC | 118 | over |
| 2025-09-14 | @ IND | 6 | under |
| 2025-09-07 | vs TEN | 61 | over |