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Courtland Sutton
DEN @ ARI · Sun 4:05 PM ETReceptions · 2.5 at betPARX · median 3.5 ·
56Signal · over 2.550% · 5 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
5 / 10Cleared the number in 5 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 4.7 a game recently
Expected receptions: 2.2 against 2.5 · over 44%, under 56%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 2.5 · Dec 14, 2025 – Oct 15, 2026
Worst miss -1.5| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-14 | GB | 7 over | +4.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | JAX | 6 over | +3.5 |
| 2025-12-25 | KC | 4 over | +1.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | LAC | 1 under | −1.5 |
| 2026-09-14 | KC | 2 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | JAX | 3 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | LA | 3 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | SF | 1 under | −1.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | LAC | 2 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-10-15 | SEA | 2 under | −0.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 5 / 10 | 50% | +0.6 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 50% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
9 books · 1 spread
- Bally Bet 2.5
- betPARX 2.5
- BetRivers 2.5
- FanDuel 2.5
- BetMGM 3.5
- Fliff 3.5
- Hard Rock Bet 3.5
- ESPN Bet 3.5
- DraftKings 3.5
Line movement
- FanDuelMoved from 3.5 to 2.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 | vs SEA | 2 | under |
| 2026-10-11 | @ LAC | 2 | under |
| 2026-10-04 | @ SF | 1 | under |
| 2026-09-27 | vs LA | 3 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | vs JAX | 3 | over |
| 2026-09-14 | @ KC | 2 | under |
| 2026-01-04 | vs LAC | 1 | under |
| 2025-12-25 | @ KC | 4 | over |
| 2025-12-21 | vs JAX | 6 | over |
| 2025-12-14 | vs GB | 7 | over |
| 2025-12-07 | @ LV | 6 | over |
| 2025-11-30 | @ WAS | 5 | over |
| 2025-11-16 | vs KC | 4 | over |
| 2025-11-06 | vs LV | 3 | over |
| 2025-11-02 | @ HOU | 1 | under |
| 2025-10-26 | vs DAL | 4 | over |
| 2025-10-19 | vs NYG | 6 | over |
| 2025-10-12 | @ NYJ | 1 | under |
| 2025-10-05 | @ PHI | 8 | over |
| 2025-09-29 | vs CIN | 5 | over |
| 2025-09-21 | @ LAC | 6 | over |
| 2025-09-14 | @ IND | 1 | under |
| 2025-09-07 | vs TEN | 6 | over |