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Geno Smith
NYJ vs LV · Sun 1:00 PM ETPass Attempts · 30.5 at Fliff ·
54Signal · under 30.580% · 8 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
2 / 10Cleared the number in 2 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- pass attempts: 29.6 a game recently
Expected pass attempts: 29.6 against 30.5 · over 46%, under 54%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 7 games, 7 this season.
Last 10 games against 30.5 · Dec 7, 2025 – Oct 25, 2026
Worst miss -10.5 on the under| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-07 | DEN | 21 under | −9.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | HOU | 23 under | −7.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | NYG | 28 under | −2.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | TEN | 24 under | −6.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | GB | 41 over | +10.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | DET | 37 over | +6.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | CHI | 15 under | −15.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | CLE | 30 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | NE | 30 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-10-25 | MIA | 30 under | −0.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 8 / 10 | 80% under | +2.6 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 80% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
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Book Range
8 books · 1 spreadEasiest number for the under: 30.5
- Hard Rock Bet 29.5
- betPARX 29.5
- Bally Bet 29.5
- Fanatics 30.5 (easiest number)
- DraftKings 30.5 (easiest number)
- Fliff 30.5 (easiest number)
- DK Pick6 30.5 (easiest number)
- PrizePicks 30.5 (easiest number)
Line movement
- Hard Rock BetMoved from 30.5 to 29.5
- PrizePicksMoved from 32.5 to 30.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 30.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | vs MIA | 30 | under |
| 2026-10-18 | @ NE | 30 | under |
| 2026-10-11 | vs CLE | 30 | under |
| 2026-10-04 | @ CHI | 15 | under |
| 2026-09-27 | @ DET | 37 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | vs GB | 41 | over |
| 2026-09-13 | @ TEN | 24 | under |
| 2025-12-28 | vs NYG | 28 | under |
| 2025-12-21 | @ HOU | 23 | under |
| 2025-12-07 | vs DEN | 21 | under |
| 2025-11-30 | @ LAC | 23 | under |
| 2025-11-23 | vs CLE | 44 | over |
| 2025-11-17 | vs DAL | 42 | over |
| 2025-11-06 | @ DEN | 26 | under |
| 2025-11-02 | vs JAX | 39 | over |
| 2025-10-19 | @ KC | 16 | under |
| 2025-10-12 | vs TEN | 23 | under |
| 2025-10-05 | @ IND | 36 | over |
| 2025-09-28 | vs CHI | 21 | under |
| 2025-09-21 | @ WAS | 29 | under |
| 2025-09-15 | vs LAC | 43 | over |
| 2025-09-07 | @ NE | 34 | over |