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Geno Smith

NYJ vs LV · Sun 1:00 PM ET

Pass Attempts · 29.5 at Hard Rock Bet · median 30.5 ·

53Signal · under 29.550% · 5 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
5 / 10Cleared the number in 5 of 10 games
3 straight over

How the formula reads this game

  • pass attempts: 29.6 a game recently

Expected pass attempts: 29.6 against 29.5 · over 47%, under 53%

Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 7 games, 7 this season.

Last 10 games against 29.5 · Dec 7, 2025 – Oct 25, 2026

Worst miss -14.5
29.52025-12-07 vs DEN: 21, under 29.5 by 8.521DEN2025-12-21 at HOU: 23, under 29.5 by 6.523HOU2025-12-28 vs NYG: 28, under 29.5 by 1.528NYG2026-09-13 at TEN: 24, under 29.5 by 5.524TEN2026-09-20 vs GB: 41, over 29.5 by 11.541GB2026-09-27 at DET: 37, over 29.5 by 7.537DET2026-10-04 at CHI: 15, under 29.5 by 14.515CHI2026-10-11 vs CLE: 30, over 29.5 by 0.530CLE2026-10-18 at NE: 30, over 29.5 by 0.530NE2026-10-25 vs MIA: 30, over 29.5 by 0.530MIA
Each game against 29.5
DateOpponentResultMargin
2025-12-07DEN21 under−8.5
2025-12-21HOU23 under−6.5
2025-12-28NYG28 under−1.5
2026-09-13TEN24 under−5.5
2026-09-20GB41 over+11.5
2026-09-27DET37 over+7.5
2026-10-04CHI15 under−14.5
2026-10-11CLE30 over+0.5
2026-10-18NE30 over+0.5
2026-10-25MIA30 over+0.5

Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made

Splits

WindowHitsRateAvg margin
Last 5 (with DPB Pro) Pro
Last 105 / 1050%-1.6
Last 20 (with DPB Pro) Pro
This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) Pro
Home (with DPB Pro) Pro

See whether the 50% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
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Book Range

8 books · 1 spread
  • Hard Rock Bet 29.5
  • betPARX 29.5
  • Bally Bet 29.5
  • Fanatics 30.5
  • DraftKings 30.5
  • Fliff 30.5
  • DK Pick6 30.5
  • PrizePicks 30.5

Line movement

  • Hard Rock BetMoved from 30.5 to 29.5
  • PrizePicksMoved from 32.5 to 30.5

Game log

DateOpponentResultvs 29.5
2026-10-25vs MIA30over
2026-10-18@ NE30over
2026-10-11vs CLE30over
2026-10-04@ CHI15under
2026-09-27@ DET37over
2026-09-20vs GB41over
2026-09-13@ TEN24under
2025-12-28vs NYG28under
2025-12-21@ HOU23under
2025-12-07vs DEN21under
2025-11-30@ LAC23under
2025-11-23vs CLE44over
2025-11-17vs DAL42over
2025-11-06@ DEN26under
2025-11-02vs JAX39over
2025-10-19@ KC16under
2025-10-12vs TEN23under
2025-10-05@ IND36over
2025-09-28vs CHI21under
2025-09-21@ WAS29under
2025-09-15vs LAC43over
2025-09-07@ NE34over