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Geno Smith
NYJ vs LV · Sun 1:00 PM ETPassing Yards · 221.5 at Fliff · median 222.5 ·
52Signal · under 221.560% · 6 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
4 / 10Cleared the number in 4 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- pass attempts: 29.6 a game recently
Expected passing yards: 231.9 yds against 221.5 · over 48%, under 52%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 7 games, 7 this season.
Last 10 games against 221.5 · Dec 7, 2025 – Oct 25, 2026
Worst miss -99 on the under| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-07 | DEN | 116 under | −105.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | HOU | 201 under | −20.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | NYG | 176 under | −45.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | TEN | 215 under | −6.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | GB | 247 over | +25.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | DET | 321 over | +99.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | CHI | 119 under | −102.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | CLE | 182 under | −39.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | NE | 252 over | +30.5 |
| 2026-10-25 | MIA | 287 over | +65.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 6 / 10 | 60% under | +10 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 60% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
11 books · 6 yds spreadEasiest number for the under: 226.5
- DraftKings 220.5
- Fanatics 220.5
- DK Pick6 220.5
- Hard Rock Bet 221.5
- Fliff 221.5
- FanDuel 222.5
- PrizePicks 222.5
- Underdog 224.5
- Bally Bet 226.5 (easiest number)
- betPARX 226.5 (easiest number)
- BetRivers 226.5 (easiest number)
Line movement
- DraftKingsMoved from 224.5 to 220.5
- FliffMoved from 224.5 to 221.5
- Hard Rock BetMoved from 223.5 to 221.5
- FanDuelMoved from 219.5 to 222.5
- Bally BetMoved from 224.5 to 226.5
- betPARXMoved from 224.5 to 226.5
- BetRiversMoved from 224.5 to 226.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 221.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | vs MIA | 287 | over |
| 2026-10-18 | @ NE | 252 | over |
| 2026-10-11 | vs CLE | 182 | under |
| 2026-10-04 | @ CHI | 119 | under |
| 2026-09-27 | @ DET | 321 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | vs GB | 247 | over |
| 2026-09-13 | @ TEN | 215 | under |
| 2025-12-28 | vs NYG | 176 | under |
| 2025-12-21 | @ HOU | 201 | under |
| 2025-12-07 | vs DEN | 116 | under |
| 2025-11-30 | @ LAC | 165 | under |
| 2025-11-23 | vs CLE | 285 | over |
| 2025-11-17 | vs DAL | 238 | over |
| 2025-11-06 | @ DEN | 143 | under |
| 2025-11-02 | vs JAX | 284 | over |
| 2025-10-19 | @ KC | 67 | under |
| 2025-10-12 | vs TEN | 174 | under |
| 2025-10-05 | @ IND | 228 | over |
| 2025-09-28 | vs CHI | 117 | under |
| 2025-09-21 | @ WAS | 289 | over |
| 2025-09-15 | vs LAC | 180 | under |
| 2025-09-07 | @ NE | 362 | over |