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Jeremiyah Love
ARI @ DAL · Sun 1:00 PM ETRushing Yards · 40.5 at Hard Rock Bet ·
48Signal · over 40.560% · 3 / 5 · last 10 · the formula's chance
3 / 5Cleared the number in 3 of 5 games, 5 without a result
How the formula reads this game
- carries: 13.4 a game recently
- vs DAL · ×1.02 yds per carry
Expected rushing yards: 50.0 yds against 40.5 · over 48%, under 52%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 5 games, 5 this season.
Last 10 games against 40.5 · Sep 13, 2026 – Oct 11, 2026
Worst miss -18| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| — | — | no result | — |
| — | — | no result | — |
| — | — | no result | — |
| — | — | no result | — |
| — | — | no result | — |
| 2026-09-13 | LAC | 41 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | SEA | 29 under | −11.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | SF | 90 over | +49.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | NYG | 63 over | +22.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | DET | 22 under | −18.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 3 / 5 | 60% over | +9 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 60% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
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Book Range
10 books · 2 yds spreadEasiest number for the over: 39.5
- BetMGM 39.5 -120 (easiest number)
- Underdog 39.5 (easiest number)
- FanDuel 40.5 -114
- Hard Rock Bet 40.5 -120
- PrizePicks 40.5
- DraftKings 41.5 -110
- Bally Bet 41.5 -127
- betPARX 41.5 -127
- BetRivers 41.5 -127
- DK Pick6 41.5
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 40.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-11 | vs DET | 22 | under |
| 2026-10-04 | @ NYG | 63 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | @ SF | 90 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | vs SEA | 29 | under |
| 2026-09-13 | @ LAC | 41 | over |