← NFL board6 straight under
Kaelon Black
SF vs LV · Sun 4:05 PM ETReceiving Yards · 4.5 at PrizePicks ·
70Signal · under 4.586% · 6 / 7 · last 10 · the formula's chance
1 / 7Cleared the number in 1 of 7 games, 3 without a result
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 0.9 a game recently
Expected receiving yards: 0.6 yds against 4.5 · over 12%, under 88%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 7 games, 7 this season.
Last 10 games against 4.5 · Sep 10, 2026 – Oct 25, 2026
Worst miss 0 on the under| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| — | — | no result | — |
| — | — | no result | — |
| — | — | no result | — |
| 2026-09-10 | LA | 5 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | MIA | 0 under | −4.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | ARI | 0 under | −4.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | DEN | 0 under | −4.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | SEA | 0 under | −4.5 |
| 2026-10-19 | WAS | 3 under | −1.5 |
| 2026-10-25 | ATL | -4 under | −8.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 6 / 7 | 86% under | +4 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 86% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
4.52 books, no line disagreementPP · UD
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | @ ATL | -4 | under |
| 2026-10-19 | vs WAS | 3 | under |
| 2026-10-11 | @ SEA | 0 | under |
| 2026-10-04 | vs DEN | 0 | under |
| 2026-09-27 | vs ARI | 0 | under |
| 2026-09-20 | vs MIA | 0 | under |
| 2026-09-10 | @ LA | 5 | over |