← NFL board3 straight over
Kenny Gainwell
TB vs ATL · Sun 1:00 PM ETQuestionableRushing Yards · 14.5 at FanDuel ·
49Signal · over 14.560% · 6 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
6 / 10Cleared the number in 6 of 10 games
Listed questionable with a hip injury on the week 8 report, full practice. Everything below is history, and history is a weaker guide when a player is listed. Report checked Oct 31, 5:01 AM ET.
How the formula reads this game
- carries: 4.7 a game recently → 3.9 this game
- Questionable · ×0.82 carries
- vs ATL · ×1.01 yds per carry
Expected rushing yards: 19.5 yds against 14.5 · over 49%, under 51%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 7 games, 7 this season.
Last 10 games against 14.5 · Dec 21, 2025 – Oct 25, 2026
Worst miss -18| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-21 | DET | 50 over | +35.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | CLE | 26 over | +11.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | BAL | 10 under | −4.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | CIN | 15 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | CLE | 10 under | −4.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | MIN | -4 under | −18.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | GB | 5 under | −9.5 |
| 2026-10-08 | DAL | 18 over | +3.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | PIT | 17 over | +2.5 |
| 2026-10-25 | CAR | 88 over | +73.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 6 / 10 | 60% over | +9 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 60% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
14.511 books, no line disagreementMGM · DK · FD · ESPN · HR · BB · PX2 · BR · PK6 · PP · UD· best price at 14.5: MGM -110
Line movement
- UnderdogMoved from 19.5 to 14.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 14.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | @ CAR | 88 | over |
| 2026-10-18 | vs PIT | 17 | over |
| 2026-10-08 | @ DAL | 18 | over |
| 2026-10-04 | vs GB | 5 | under |
| 2026-09-27 | vs MIN | -4 | under |
| 2026-09-20 | vs CLE | 10 | under |
| 2026-09-13 | @ CIN | 15 | over |
| 2026-01-04 | vs BAL | 10 | under |
| 2025-12-28 | @ CLE | 26 | over |
| 2025-12-21 | @ DET | 50 | over |
| 2025-12-15 | vs MIA | 80 | over |
| 2025-12-07 | @ BAL | 15 | over |
| 2025-11-30 | vs BUF | 20 | over |
| 2025-11-23 | @ CHI | 92 | over |
| 2025-11-16 | vs CIN | 24 | over |
| 2025-11-09 | @ LAC | 0 | under |
| 2025-11-02 | vs IND | -1 | under |
| 2025-10-26 | vs GB | 31 | over |
| 2025-10-16 | @ CIN | 14 | under |
| 2025-10-12 | vs CLE | 22 | over |
| 2025-09-28 | vs MIN | 99 | over |
| 2025-09-21 | @ NE | 16 | over |
| 2025-09-14 | vs SEA | 20 | over |
| 2025-09-07 | @ NYJ | 19 | over |