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Luther Burden III
CHI vs NE · Thu 8:15 PM ETReceptions · 4.5 at DraftKings ·
50%even5 / 10 · last 10
5 / 10Cleared the number in 5 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 7.2 a game recently
Expected receptions: 5.2 against 4.5 · over 49%, under 51%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 4.5 · Dec 7, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -1.5| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-07 | GB | 4 under | −0.5 |
| 2025-12-14 | CLE | 6 over | +1.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | SF | 8 over | +3.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | DET | 3 under | −1.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | CAR | 5 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | MIN | 3 under | −1.5 |
| 2026-09-28 | PHI | 7 over | +2.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | NYJ | 4 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | GB | 4 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | ATL | 8 over | +3.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 5 / 10 | 50% | +0.7 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 50% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
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Book Range
4.59 books, no line disagreementMGM · PX2 · BR · DK · BB · FD · ESPN · FL · HR
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | @ ATL | 8 | over |
| 2026-10-11 | @ GB | 4 | under |
| 2026-10-04 | vs NYJ | 4 | under |
| 2026-09-28 | vs PHI | 7 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | vs MIN | 3 | under |
| 2026-09-13 | @ CAR | 5 | over |
| 2026-01-04 | vs DET | 3 | under |
| 2025-12-28 | @ SF | 8 | over |
| 2025-12-14 | vs CLE | 6 | over |
| 2025-12-07 | @ GB | 4 | under |
| 2025-11-28 | @ PHI | 4 | under |
| 2025-11-23 | vs PIT | 3 | under |
| 2025-11-16 | @ MIN | 3 | under |
| 2025-11-09 | vs NYG | 3 | under |
| 2025-10-26 | @ BAL | 1 | under |
| 2025-10-19 | vs NO | 1 | under |
| 2025-10-13 | @ WAS | 4 | under |
| 2025-09-28 | @ LV | 2 | under |
| 2025-09-21 | vs DAL | 3 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | @ DET | 1 | under |
| 2025-09-08 | vs MIN | 1 | under |