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Michael Penix Jr.
ATL @ TB · Sun 1:00 PM ETPassing Yards · 219.5 at Bally Bet · median 228.5 ·
48Signal · over 219.570% · 7 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
7 / 10Cleared the number in 7 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- pass attempts: 28.8 a game recently
Expected passing yards: 231.4 yds against 219.5 · over 48%, under 52%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 5 games, 5 this season.
Last 10 games against 219.5 · Oct 13, 2025 – Oct 25, 2026
Worst miss -44| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-13 | BUF | 250 over | +30.5 |
| 2025-10-19 | SF | 241 over | +21.5 |
| 2025-11-02 | NE | 221 over | +1.5 |
| 2025-11-09 | IND | 177 under | −42.5 |
| 2025-11-16 | CAR | 175 under | −44.5 |
| 2026-09-24 | GB | 256 over | +36.5 |
| 2026-10-05 | NO | 223 over | +3.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | BAL | 240 over | +20.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | CHI | 225 over | +5.5 |
| 2026-10-25 | SF | 213 under | −6.5 |
The ten-game rate rests on an average clearance under one unit of the stat: a thin habit rather than a wide one.
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 7 / 10 | 70% over | +3 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 70% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
11 books · 10 yds spreadEasiest number for the over: 219.5 · best price BB, PX2, BR -120
- Bally Bet 219.5 -120 (easiest number) (best price at this number)
- betPARX 219.5 -120 (easiest number) (best price at this number)
- BetRivers 219.5 -120 (easiest number) (best price at this number)
- BetMGM 225.5 -115
- Fanatics 225.5 -120
- DraftKings 228.5 -111
- DK Pick6 228.5
- ESPN Bet 229.5 -105
- FanDuel 229.5 -114
- Hard Rock Bet 229.5 -115
- PrizePicks 229.5
Line movement
- Bally BetMoved from 222.5 to 219.5
- betPARXMoved from 222.5 to 219.5
- BetRiversMoved from 222.5 to 219.5
- BetMGMMoved from 228.5 to 225.5
- FanaticsMoved from 230.5 to 225.5
- DraftKingsMoved from 224.5 to 228.5
- DK Pick6Moved from 231.5 to 228.5
- FanDuelMoved from 232.5 to 229.5
- Hard Rock BetMoved from 225.5 to 229.5
- PrizePicksMoved from 228.5 to 229.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 219.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | vs SF | 213 | under |
| 2026-10-18 | vs CHI | 225 | over |
| 2026-10-11 | vs BAL | 240 | over |
| 2026-10-05 | @ NO | 223 | over |
| 2026-09-24 | @ GB | 256 | over |
| 2025-11-16 | vs CAR | 175 | under |
| 2025-11-09 | @ IND | 177 | under |
| 2025-11-02 | @ NE | 221 | over |
| 2025-10-19 | @ SF | 241 | over |
| 2025-10-13 | vs BUF | 250 | over |
| 2025-09-28 | vs WAS | 313 | over |
| 2025-09-21 | @ CAR | 172 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | @ MIN | 135 | under |
| 2025-09-07 | vs TB | 298 | over |